Veteran Winston Peters can’t afford another blunder in chequered Chinese visit

Analysis: To the extent it’s true that Chinese government and business leaders value experience and longevity, foreign minister Wang Yi should appreciate being welcomed to Wellington next week by Winston Peters.

For all his mercurial reputation in domestic politics, Peters is known as a safe pair of hands on the world stage. This is his third stint as Minister of Foreign Affairs. On and off for 20 years, he’s been gripping hands with Chinese foreign ministers at Apec, Asean and East Asia summits around the Indo-Pacific. 

He’s met with Li Zhaoxing, Yang Jiechi and, in his last term in the office, with Wang Yi. Wang is becoming a familiar face in the region, after his diplomatic blitz across the Pacific visiting eight nations and talking to 10 leaders in an attempt to win friends and influence people.

China’s been trying to sign security deals with the Pacific that would allow its uniformed personnel – either police or army, depending on who you believe – to establish a presence. It’s faced an angry pushback from the US, which has rediscovered an interest in South Pacific matters for the first time since WWII.

Last night, Peters announced he will host Wang for a bilateral meeting and an official dinner in Wellington, on Monday. “We look forward to re-engaging with foreign minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s most important and complex,” Peters says.

But ahead of next week’s visit, Peters has made an uncharacteristic stumble. Visiting India this week, he waded into a diplomatic row between India and Canada in an interview with The Indian Express.

Bear in mind, for a moment, the pressure on Peters and Trade Minister Todd McClay to deliver a strong relationship with China, after Christopher Luxon boldly promised to lock in a free trade deal with India within three years. 

So keen was Peters to soft-soap India’s Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar that he cast doubt on Canada’s evidence that Indian security services assassinated Khalistan Tiger Force leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June. “As a trained lawyer, I look, okay, so where’s the case? Where’s the evidence? Where’s the finding right here, right now? Well, there isn’t one,” he said.

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To Narendra Modi’s government, Nijjar was a terrorist and Peters’ words were welcome backing. But to his supporters, the murdered Canadian citizen was a peaceful champion of Sikh independence.

It’s a dangerous business playing your allies off against each other. Canada’s High Commissioner sought reassurance from Peters at a cocktail function at the New Zealand High Commission in Delhi. (To be fair, if it was just about trade, neither Canada nor India has done New Zealand any favours lately).

Otago University’s Professor Robert Patman tells me Peters’ ill-judged comments may well gain applause from the “Hindu supremacist” government in India, but they will disappoint two of New Zealand’s closest allies, Canada and the US.

Now, Peters must tread an even more difficult line in his meetings with Wang. Again, Luxon has set him a difficult challenge by saying in the election campaign that he wanted to strengthen ties with China – at a time when the US, Australia and other Western partners are distancing themselves.

Peters has always believed relations with the US trumps those with China. It’s interesting to see him pick up Joe Biden’s language of an “Indo-Pacific region” rather than “Asia-Pacific” – newer language that is seen to move China to the fringes. Similarly, he says the relationship with China is “complex”.

Long-time trade negotiator Stephen Jacobi, who is now executive director of the NZ International Business Forum, says a visit by such a senior Chinese leader is very welcome, particularly at this time of global turmoil. “How can we demonstrate enduring relevance for China beyond the free trade agreement export of agricultural and horticultural products?”

In the space of six days, Peters is meeting with some of the most senior leaders of three of the world’s four most populous nations. In Delhi on Wednesday, in Jakarta today, and meeting with Wang next week, Peters has the same challenge in convincing them that his closer alignment with the remaining member of the Big Four, the USA, does not constitute a retreat from a principled, independent foreign policy.

To complicate things further, India is a competitor with China. “They share a border and often clash militarily along this border,” says former foreign affairs official Charles Finny. “India also sees China as an economic competitor. New Zealand is seen as increasingly relevant by India because of this competition with China.”

And with all this in the foreground, India, China and New Zealand are all very aware that a second Trump presidency is looking increasingly likely. That’s likely to mean high tariffs and increasing tension between the US and China. “How close will New Zealand want to be with Trump? And what will higher tariffs on China-US trade mean for New Zealand? This visit is important and will be the first real foreign policy test for the Luxon Government.”

The Wang Yi visit has been planned for some time, Finny says. “China is keen to see a New Zealand return to the John Key era type posturing, but has been disconcerted by some comments already made by the Government and by positioning on Aukus. Wang Yi will be wanting to address Chinese concerns.”

For the China administration, it’s all about security. For the New Zealand Government, its mostly about trade. China will remain New Zealand’s most important market for many years to come.  So the Government will keep walking that tightrope, supporting democratic and human rights principles while not upsetting the Chinese too much and risking the type of retaliation that Australia experienced.

Chinese activity in the Pacific remains a concern. Wang may be angling for some sort of reassurance about New Zealand’s relationship with Aukus, Patman says. “His visit may bring to the surface potential tensions between Luxon and Peters over how much weight should be attached to good relations with China.”