Optimism can sometimes feel in short supply for observers of international relations.
With high-profile wars in Ukraine and Gaza (not to mention lesser-heralded conflicts in Myanmar, Sudan and western Africa), ongoing tensions between rival superpowers China and the United States, and a swell of populist and protectionist sentiment, there are no shortage of issues for diplomats to tackle.
“It’s been the most conflicted world in living memory for most New Zealanders,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters says of the geopolitical climate at present.
The year ahead in foreign policy may well be defined by someone who seems to thrive on conflict – Donald Trump, who will be sworn in for his second (non-consecutive) term as US president later this month.
The last National government was caught on the hop by Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, scrambling to find a way to contact him then unable to publicly explain how his so-called ‘Muslim ban’ would affect dual-national Kiwis.
Peters believes the Government is better placed this time around, citing his decision to reappoint the well-connected Rosemary Banks as US ambassador and other efforts to forge links to Trump’s circle.
“You should never think that you’ve done everything you possibly can, but we’ve done all we possibly can thus far to make every connection we possibly can to get close to that presidency.”
He is confident New Zealand can avoid the potentially devastating tariffs that Trump has promised to impose on all imports, given the “massive balance of trade in their favour” as well as shared interests in the Pacific.
New Zealand should in theory be better prepared for a Trump presidency having gone through it once before, University of Otago international relations professor Robert Patman says.
Patman favours a continuation of the Ardern government’s ‘two-track approach’ to Trump’s first term – where New Zealand went out of its way to support the US where national interests converged, while agreeing to disagree on some topics – but says parties in the current coalition may clash over just how close to Trump we should get.
There are a number of difficulties in trying to plan for the Trump administration. For one, his campaign rhetoric “doesn’t always translate into actual policies”, while his seeming preference for loyalty above all could come back to bite.
“He could be setting himself up for the perfect storm in Washington, where people who are absolutely devoted to him are quickly revealed to be completely incompetent and unable to do the job they’ve been chosen to do.”
Trump’s views on the Aukus security pact remain largely unknown, as the Government continues to chew over whether New Zealand should be involved in the technology-sharing component known as Pillar II.
But even if the president doesn’t seek to renegotiate the deal or tear it up altogether, Patman says his re-election has made New Zealand involvement “even more problematic”.
The state of the US is hardly the only foreign policy issue high on the radar for 2025 – but the impact of Trump’s approach to his presidency will inevitably spill beyond national borders.
In February, the world will mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with little hope of a decisive win for Kyiv.
During the election campaign, Trump pledged to end the war within a day. Russian president Vladimir Putin has since indicated a willingness to sit down with his US counterpart for talks – but as Patman notes, the terms of ‘peace’ may not be all that peaceful.
“If Mr Putin succeeds in annexing [Ukraine] in a sort of ‘land for peace’ deal supported by Trump, that means you will have a country involved in a land grab that’s been rewarded for it – and that’s bad news for many middle and smaller powers in the world.”
Peters is more confident about the prospect of a peace settlement in Gaza, saying Trump has “made it very clear he’s not happy with what’s going on there”.
But Patman is less sure, noting the gap between US (and New Zealand) rhetoric and action when it comes to peace in the Middle East.
“Israel under [Benjamin] Netanyahu has for 25 years opposed the two-state solution. We keep saying we want a two-state solution, we want the Palestinians to achieve political self-determination, but then we remain absolutely silent when the Netanyahu government says it’s going to formally annex the West Bank illegally in early 2025.”
Trump’s re-election portends a dramatic shift in American foreign policy, but there will be more subtle but nonetheless significant changes closer to home as the coalition Government enters its second year.
“We should stop that slightly antiquated view that we’re a long way from everywhere else and no one notices what we do – they do notice.”
Robert Patman
If Peters was relatively restrained in his international travel during his stint as foreign minister in Jacinda Ardern’s Labour-led government, he has shown no such reticence this time around.
A list of 2024 statistics provided by his office is almost dizzying: 39 countries visited, 11 major international forums attended, and 112 days spent overseas (the “overwhelming majority” of which has occurred when Parliament isn’t sitting, they hasten to add).
Such a workload seems unsustainable, and Peters confirms he will be choosing his trips more carefully in 2025: “Most definitely, because we’ll have done the spade work to reconnect.”
Asia remains a priority, with a first China visit and further travel to India in the offing along with visits to Southeast Asia, while plans are firming up for a swing through the Middle East (specifically, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states).
Patman offers praise for the “quite active” approach taken by Peters and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in the Indo-Pacific and on the international stage – but while the energy is there, he argues the execution is not.
One of the coalition’s priorities has been moving in closer alignment with New Zealand’s traditional allies, even though it inherited “excellent relations” from the Labour government.
Issues beyond the Government’s control – such as widespread criticism of the American approach to Gaza, and Trump’s re-election – have further complicated the argument that New Zealand should be drawing even closer to the US, while leaving it open to accusations of being “anchored in the Anzus era”.
Patman says the Government’s perceived backtracking on climate action has also done damage to New Zealand’s reputation, noting the country’s fall in global climate rankings.
“We should stop that slightly antiquated view that we’re a long way from everywhere else and no-one notices what we do – they do notice … it’s very important that we do not see our soft power eroded by rowing back on some of our international commitments.”
Instead, New Zealand should be even more vocal on matters like UN Security Council reform and the state of the World Trade Organisation, both multilateral organisations whose health is of vital importance to smaller states.
A greater voice may require greater habits, and Peters has made a habit of securing funding for Kiwi diplomats; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade was one of the few government agencies not required to make sharp budget cuts last year.
The minister confirms he has received a report outlining where the foreign affairs budget is and isn’t working well, but is coy about the specifics other than to confirm he will be having the usual pre-Budget discussions with Finance Minister Nicola Willis.
“My complaint over decades is that countries like Singapore and Ireland – just two different examples – have two and a half times more people in the field than us, because they realise that an export-dependent nation needs people on the ground.”
So how should we feel about the state of the world heading into 2025?
Patman has mixed feelings. While Trump’s election will strengthen the forces of the radical right, the inability of populists like him to govern effectively counts against them, while the international situation is not “one of unrelieved doom and gloom” as Peters and others have suggested.
Geopolitical tension may be on the rise, but the challenges facing the world are such that international collaboration is not a luxury but a necessity.
“At some point, self-interest will kick in and [countries] will have to cooperate.”
Will 2025 be that year? Only time will tell.
