Pager blasts: Will the dramatic attacks trigger a bigger war?

Drums of wars are beating louder after pagers used by members of militant group Hezbollah exploded on Tuesday in Lebanon and Syria, killing at least nine people and injuring several thousand. Hezbollah and the Lebanese government blamed Israel for the coordinated attack. These devices, modified by Israel’s spy agency Mossad, were embedded with a small amount of explosives which were triggered remotely, Reuters has reported quoting sources. The Israeli military, which has been engaged in an exchange of fire with Hezbollah since October, coinciding with the Gaza war, did not provide an immediate response to the incident.

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Many think the pager attack can trigger a bigger war even as Israel has put Hezbollah in its cross hairs and plans to widen its offensive on its northern border with Lebanon. Though Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is a militant group backed by Iran, its military might matches that of a midsized country. Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem had said last weekend that his group had “no intention of going to war”, but that “there will be large losses on both sides” in the event of all-out conflict.

Hezbollah to “punish” Israel

In response to the attack, Hezbollah has vowed retaliation against Israel. The scale and effectiveness of the operation have been described as one of the most significant intelligence failures for Hezbollah in recent years. Jonathan Panikoff, a former US national intelligence officer in the Middle East, labeled it as “the biggest counterintelligence failure Hezbollah has faced in decades.”

Following the attack, Hezbollah has promised retaliation against Israel, labeling the incident as “Israeli aggression.” Lebanese information minister Ziad Makary condemned the attacks, while a Hezbollah official stated, “Israel will receive its fair punishment” for the blasts. The group confirmed that among the casualties were its fighters and civilians. “This is not a security targeting of one, two or three people. This is a targeting of an entire nation,” senior Hezbollah official Hussein Khalil said.

Escalation of Israel-Hezbollah conflict?

After the outbreak of war in Gaza, which was ignited by Hamas’ October 7 attack, Hezbollah began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel. Both armed groups are allied with Iran, and Hezbollah says it is acting in solidarity with the Palestinians. Israel has responded to the attacks with airstrikes and the targeted killing of Hezbollah commanders. It has threatened a wider operation, raising fears of another all-out war. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks if there is a cease-fire in Gaza.Also Read: Mossad’s Hidden Hand: How Israel targeted thousands of Hezbollah terrorists with ‘Taiwan’ company’s 3-g pager bombsAs the fear of escalation grows deeper in the wake of pager blasts, it will not be the first time when Israel and Hezbollah may enter into a direct conflict. In July, a rocket strike on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights killed at least 11 children and teens, making it the deadliest attack on an Israeli target along the northern border since the conflict with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah reignited. In retaliation, Israel carried out an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, killing at least three people. The Israeli military claimed that the strike targeted a Hezbollah commander allegedly responsible for a deadly rocket attack in the contested Golan Heights, which resulted in the deaths of 12 youths.

While they saw a threat of escalation, many experts are more skeptical, for now, about the potential for an imminent full-scale Israel-Hezbollah war, which the U.S. has sought to prevent and which it believes neither side wants, Reuters reported.

Also Read: Israel’s Mossad put explosives in thousands of Taiwan-made pagers months agoHowever, some experts have told RT that a confrontation with Hezbollah now will be different from those experienced by Israel before. “First of all, the terrain will be different,” Sarit Zehavi, the founder and president of Alma, an independent research and education center specializing in Israel’s security challenges, told RT. “It’s much more challenging than Gaza, it has hills and valleys. It’s more difficult to maneuver. It will be easier for Hezbollah operatives to hide there. [Secondly], the underground infrastructure of Hezbollah is much bigger, and [thirdly] munition is hidden in towns and villages but given that Lebanon is bigger, it would be possible for the population to leave areas of a war zone [to protect themselves].”

Another challenge lies in the barrages of rockets that Hezbollah would be launching towards Israel. According to some estimates, on the first day of Hamas’ attack on Israel, the group fired 4,300 rockets. With Hezbollah, however, the daily numbers of rockets, missiles and drones promise to exceed 10,000, and the question is whether Israel will be prepared to handle it. “[During the attack of October 7], Israel was able to deal with the missiles of Hamas and no threat was posed to Tel Aviv, for example,” Eyal Zisser, a vice rector of Tel Aviv University and one of the most renowned Middle East experts, told RT. “With Hezbollah, it will be entirely different. Israel has air-defense systems that are quite capable, but to deal with thousands of rockets… I really don’t know. This is something that we will have to wait and see whether Israel can really handle such a threat or it will be in a situation where it suffers casualties and hits by these missiles.”

Israel puts Hezbollah in cross hairs

Israel announced the expansion of its war aims on Tuesday, widening its nearly year-long fight against Hamas in Gaza to focus on Hezbollah along its northern border with Lebanon, AFP reported.

Until now, Israel’s objectives have been to crush Hamas and to bring home the hostages taken by Palestinian militants during the October 7 attacks that sparked the war. While the focus of the war has been on Gaza, the unabating exchanges of fire between Israeli troops and Hamas ally Hezbollah in Lebanon have forced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border to flee their homes. Among goals of the war, Israel has now included “the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes” which means Hezbollah is now in its crosshairs.

Not formally declared as a war, the exchanges of fire between Israeli troops and Hezbollah have killed hundreds of mostly fighters in Lebanon, and dozens of civilians and soldiers on the Israeli side. The Israeli announcement came a day after Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said “military action” was the “only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities”.

Israel’s top security officials were summoned on Tuesday afternoon for an emergency meeting with government leaders, where they were asked to present options for addressing the escalating security situation with Hezbollah in the north, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported.

Why Hezbollah is a formidable threat for Israel

The military capabilities of Hezbollah, reinforced by the strategic leadership of Hassan Nasrallah and the group’s alliances with Iran, represent a considerable factor in Middle Eastern geopolitics, as per an analysis by Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The organization’s extensive missile inventory, sophisticated weaponry, and advanced technology position Hezbollah as a formidable entity in the Hezbollah Israel dynamic.

Also Read: Lebanon Pager Explosions: Can this happen with smartphones?The group boasts a troop strength of 20,000 to 25,000 full-time fighters, with additional tens of thousands in reserves. Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Unit is particularly noted for its combat proficiency and strategic importance in conflicts across the region. This particular unit, which was established with assistance from Iran’s Quds force, is charged with incursions into Israel, planning for takeover of Israeli territories and communities. It includes several thousands operatives that are heavily trained, some of whom have operational experience from the Syrian civil war.

The armament capabilities of Hezbollah Lebanon are notable and more similar to that of a midsize country’s army, as per an IDF report. It boasts over 150,000 rockets and missiles, including the Iranian made Fajr-5 and Zelzal-2 rockets. These armaments underscore the threat that Hezbollah poses to Israeli security, as their arsenal is capable of reaching deep into Israel’s territory. Hezbollah has built itself into the world’s most powerful non-state actor.

(With inputs from agencies)