Comment: One of the biggest applause lines from Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ speech to the party faithful on Sunday was a promise to “make this the first one-term National government in New Zealand’s history”.
Barely five years ago, National leader Simon Bridges was pledging to make the Labour-led coalition the first one-term government since 1975 – yet his leadership didn’t even last until the 2020 election, where the party slumped to the second-worst result in its 87-year history.
If Bridges’ fate might suggest there is good reason for Hipkins and Labour to manage expectations, hope must spring eternal at any party’s annual conference, regardless of the historical record.
So it proved at Christchurch’s Isaac Theatre Royal over the weekend, where speeches were (understandably) light on policy specifics but heavy on fighting spirit: as Hipkins put it in his Friday night opening remarks, “we come together one year on not to mourn but to organise”.
That enthusiasm was carefully balanced with earnest references to a year spent listening to the voters who had turfed Labour out of office – in the words of deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni, “thinking about what went wrong and how we have to change”.
References to any of the last government’s achievements were all but non-existent, bar a fleeting mention of Dame Jacinda Ardern’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic as Hipkins spoke about how Labour governments brought people together instead of dividing them (though Labour icons Michael Joseph Savage, Peter Fraser and Norman Kirk won praise, David Lange’s rather less than unifying fourth Labour government was left off the list).
Instead, there was an emphasis on “getting back to basics” – an echo of Hipkins’ ‘bread and butter’ mantra after succeeding Ardern as Prime Minister in early 2023 – and delivering for working Kiwis.
With the party reviewing its policy approach and keeping its powder dry with two years until the next election, the Labour leader largely leaned on well-meaning platitudes about investing in the future and helping Kiwis get ahead through hard work.
In some cases, less would have been more. “We can boost our world-class eco-tourism offering by offering a premium wellness experience” is a line that should have been put out of its misery before ever getting a chance to spring forth from his mouth.
That’s not to say the event was entirely bereft of meaningful announcements, however, with Hipkins confirming a Labour government would deliver a full rebuild of Dunedin Hospital and a rail-enabled Interislander ferry service.
Both infrastructure projects are sensitive subjects for the current Government, and Labour will hope to capitalise on public discontent with the coalition’s cutbacks without yet having to explain how it will find the money to fund the initiatives.
Most striking, however, was an announcement that Labour would not sign New Zealand up to the polarising Aukus security pact in any form.
“Decisions about New Zealand’s best interests should be made here at home, not in Washington, Canberra or Beijing,” Hipkins declared on stage, adding: “We are proudly nuclear-free and want our region to stay that way.”
It was the last Labour government who started preliminary talks about what role (if any) New Zealand could play in Aukus – a fact that Foreign Minister Winston Peters takes great delight in repeating – but the party’s foreign policy has taken a clear leftward turn in opposition, and Donald Trump’s looming return to the White House will hardly do wonders for the popularity of US-led security initiatives.
The lack of detail about what New Zealand would gain from Aukus makes it relatively cost-free for Labour to stake out its opposition, but the party could in turn stand accused of forming a premature position before the deal’s specifics are known (“I think we’ve seen enough to know that it’s not something we want to be part of,” Hipkins said when asked by Newsroom why Labour was ruling out a role now).
The news will presumably be received with delight in Beijing, and less so in Washington DC, London and Canberra; whether this leads to a wider foreign policy pivot from Labour, and how the Government responds, will be closely watched.
Though Hipkins and his colleagues must clearly be comfortable with the policy in its own right, it is tempting to wonder whether the Aukus call is also about giving the party’s activists a high-profile ‘win’ while conversations take place about more complex matters – namely, tax.
Labour delegates reportedly passed a remit to move ahead with further work on a capital gains tax or wealth tax, but a final decision remains some time away. “It was good internal debate, but we haven’t formulated a tax policy yet – as soon as we do, we’ll let you know,” Hipkins told media.
That didn’t stop National and Act from issuing press releases taking aim at Labour’s plan to ‘take more money’ from Kiwis, just a hint of what may be to come.
Given Labour’s record of being skewered by National governments on tax policy, Hipkins would be defying history in more ways than one were he to make Christopher Luxon a one-term Prime Minister by taking a tax reform package to the electorate.
