Judging by the standings alone, the stakes of Sunday’s Week 13 matchup between Tampa Bay and Carolina were remarkably low. Both teams had losing records.
Yet the game was far more compelling than it appeared at first glance — because few games this season have offered a better perspective on one of the most significant questions in the NFL: How patient should a team be with its young quarterback?
Less than two seasons into a career in which Bryce Young has already gone from the first overall draft pick to a benching only 18 games later, Young used his legs and his arm to lead the Panthers on what appeared to be a game-winning drive, as the Panthers took a 23-20 lead with only seconds left in Sunday’s fourth quarter.
Then Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield started his own heroics, first leading the Buccaneers to a tie and then a win in overtime. It wasn’t the first time he and Young have mirrored each other. Like Young, Mayfield was a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall draft pick who quickly went from an apparent franchise cornerstone, in Cleveland, to a castoff.
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And both are now doing what few expected at various points in their respective careers — succeeding after having received second chances.
“Speaking from experience of the ups and downs of the league, to see it through, come out on the other side, it makes you stronger in the end,’’ Mayfield told reporters Sunday. “Knowing who he’s working with now is a big part of that with the positivity and confidence aspect of it. [Young] has the potential to do anything he wants to do.’’
With quarterback contracts reaching as much as $60 million annually and relaxed rules allowing for more passing, the position has never been potentially more costly — and valuable. That combination has created a short leash even for prospects, including first-round draft picks.
The stakes are stark.
Find a quarterback who works and a team can be set up for years of sustained success. (Just ask the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs.) Draft one who doesn’t live up to expectations and it can kick off a doom spiral that lasts even longer. Just ask Cleveland, which has started 39 different quarterbacks since 1999 and produced just one playoff win during that quarter-century.
The quarterback in that lone Browns playoff game was Mayfield, whom Cleveland prized so highly that it selected him with the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2018. Yet just two seasons after he led the Browns to the playoff win at Pittsburgh, Mayfield was out of a job, traded to make room for his replacement, Deshaun Watson. When Mayfield struggled enough at his next stop, Carolina, that he was cut, Cleveland’s decision to move on was never questioned.
That has changed.
Mayfield’s play with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022 was good enough to earn him a one-year contract with Tampa Bay, and with the Buccaneers, the fourth stop of his career, he has undergone a revival. He has won another playoff game; posted career-best averages for completion percentage, quarterback rating and yards per game; and used a Pro Bowl season in 2023 to earn a three-year, $100 million contract extension. The turnaround has led to questions in Cleveland about whether the Browns should regret their decision to move on from him after four seasons, while Cleveland’s acquisition of Watson has gone so poorly that the franchise’s existential search for its quarterback remains ongoing.
Could his example create a “Mayfield Effect,” in which teams are more patient in evaluating their young quarterbacks to avoid the regret of moving on too soon from passers who go on to thrive elsewhere?
“Probably not,” said an NFL executive who evaluates talent, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid. “Teams will take a big swing on a potential franchise quarterback.”
Translation: If a team’s starting quarterback hasn’t turned into a bona fide option and there is a chance to draft a coveted quarterback, a team is likely to pursue the second option.
And yet it’s notable, and perhaps not coincidence, that this has been the season of the second (or third) chances for quarterbacks across the NFL.
In Week 13 alone, Indianapolis earned a last-second win in New England that was engineered by quarterback Anthony Richardson, who was drafted three picks after Young in 2023 and was benched in October only 10 starts into his career. Yet quickly, the Colts reversed course and reinstalled him as their starter. In his third game back as starter, Richardson threw for a touchdown with 12 seconds left Sunday, then ran in the game-winning two-point conversion.
In Minnesota, the Vikings improved to 10-2 after Sam Darnold, a former top 10 pick who previously disappointed with the New York Jets and the Panthers, threw the game-winning touchdown with 1 minute left. During his first six seasons, Darnold had never thrown for more than 19 touchdowns; with five games remaining, he already has 23.
And Pittsburgh improved to 5-1 with Russell Wilson as the starter after he threw for 414 yards Sunday against Cincinnati, the second-highest total of his career. Less than a year ago, the Denver Broncos benched Wilson, a former Super Bowl champion, leading him to sign on in Pittsburgh for the league minimum. Now, the Steelers own the third-best record in the AFC.
When Carolina benched Young in September, the Panthers had their reasons: His 4-18 record was the worst by a former top pick in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN. But the Panthers had reasons not to entertain trades for Young, either. They “absolutely” believed Young could develop into a franchise quarterback, said their coach, Dave Canales — who was the offensive coordinator in Tampa during Mayfield’s 2023 revival. Was that the Mayfield effect, or was it a team simply doing its due diligence?
Either way, Young has looked promising since he returned and less like a project. After having thrown 11 touchdown passes in the first 20 games of his career, he has thrown for six in his last five. Against Tampa Bay, Young threw for 298 yards, the second-most of his career, and after the game was over, waiting for him at midfield for a handshake was Mayfield.
