Prime Minister Narendra Modi will aim to equal the record time in office of India’s first, beloved prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru as he seeks to win a third term when the world’s largest election process unfolds on April 19.
Results won’t be out before June 4, but some of the heat in what is already a hot, scorching summer is being generated by the arrest of New Delhi’s chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal, in what is being seen as a political vendetta on the part of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Earlier today (April 9), the New Delhi high court rejected Kejriwal’s bail plea, which means he stays in jail until and if the supreme court allows him out.
Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (loosely translated as the Common People’s Party) is barely 12 years old, a smallish outfit when compared to the juggernaut that is the BJP or even the grand old party, the Congress, but it makes up in chutzpah what it lacks in size. Only two years ago, it expanded its wings into north India, convincingly winning the Punjab state by defeating the Congress.
But be warned, this is not a David Vs Goliath struggle, with AAP playing the role of David against the far more powerful BJP-Goliath. AAP is likely to be outmaneuvered, outvoted, and outspent in the national scheme of things. But because it is in power in Delhi, the national capital, the arrest of the chief minister two weeks ago as well as other senior leaders of the party over the last year are generating a certain sympathy for the underdog.
Kejriwal, who has made history by becoming the first sitting chief minister to be arrested, has been accused of accepting bribes by private parties seeking to influence the city’s new liquor policy that came into force in 2022 (as the controversy snowballed, the new policy soon reverted to the old.). Kejriwal’s deputy, Manish Sisodia as well as a third AAP leader, Satyendar Jain have been behind bars on the same charges for the past year.
But if the ruling BJP’s attempt was to defame AAP – the latter came into being on the back of a large anti-corruption crusade in 2012 – it has not quite succeeded. Maybe when the results are out, the BJP will have won hands down; on the other hand, AAP might be propelled by a sympathy wave by India’s poor and middle class keenly aware that the odds are stacked against not just AAP but the entire Opposition.
In that sense, AAP might just become a lightning rod in the coming polls. The Congress seems to have dissolved into a quiet stupor, beset with a hundred contradictions. Rahul Gandhi holds no formal position in the party, but no decision can be taken without him. He has recently driven from Manipur in the far east to Maharashtra in the west, making pit stops en route and holding political rallies and conversations; his audience nods in agreement, but it is far from certain their acquiescence will translate into votes. The 52-year-old heir apparent is seen as a well-meaning man with no head for political strategy, let alone cunning. He makes all the right noises, but no one seems to be listening.
Several other regional parties are fighting to hold on to their regional turf. Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, M K Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala – all Opposition chief ministers, they know they will be swallowed up by the BJP if they don’t project strength. Banerjee’s Bengal is a special target because, in the last provincial elections, the BJP was summarily rejected by the people; but Modi is known not to forgive easily and his trusted aide and confidante, Home Minister Amit Shah hardly forgets.
This last point is especially true this election. The Indian Express reported earlier this week that in the past 10 years since Modi has been in power, that the investigating authorities went quiet on corruption charges against as many as 23 out of 25 key Opposition politicians when they quit their native political parties and joined the BJP.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED), supposed to be charged with ferreting out corruption scandals has denied being the hand-maiden of the ruling party, but the connections are far too obvious. The Arvind Kejriwal case is a case in point. The ED has arrested him after the election model code of conduct has come into play. Its officers argue that the Chief Minister cannot hide behind his status as Delhi’s top politician even though he’s corrupt. And while the ED may have a point, it is equally true that BJP politicians, similarly charged, have been let off the hook much earlier.
That is why Kejriwal’s arrest is important. If it galvanizes his party into making a stand against the BJP in Delhi and Punjab and Haryana and Gujarat, and if the people see that a worthwhile fight is in the offing, the election will become suitably charged. Unfortunately, the egos of various leaders in the Opposition have ensured that a united front is not taking on the BJP. So even as they hang separately, if Opposition leaders also step down from the fight because they have become afraid, then India may as well head in the direction of the tin-pot dictatorship.
Earlier this week, AAP leader Sanjay Singh, also accused by the Enforcement Directorate of taking bribes and finally given bail by the Supreme Court after spending six months in jail, went straight to Mahatma Gandhi’s final resting place. “It is the time to fight, not celebrate,” Singh said, echoing what millions of Indians feel privately.
Certainly, the summer ahead will be long and scorching. The country has been polarized before, but the Opposition has never been more despondent. So over the next couple of months, India will vote – as many as 960 million people are registered to elect 543 Members of Parliament. The results, out on June 4, are mostly foretold. The main question really is, how big will the BJP victory be?
Jyoti Malhotra is the founder-editor of AwaazSouthAsia and a regular contributor to Asia Sentinel. Follow her on Twitter
