Last week’s crisis in South Korea, initiated by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s invocation of martial law, caused considerable concern around the world. South Korea is a large and powerful nation that is a lynchpin in US Indo-Pacific strategy. Political instability in South Korea could be very dangerous and destabilising for the whole region. For instance, on 9 December, the Guardian quoted Ewha University Professor, Leif-Eric Easley, who said that “Leaders in Russia, China, and especially North Korea, are likely watching the political turmoil in South Korea with glee, sensing a geopolitical advantage.” Essentially, any loss of confidence in South Korean governance carries a high level of risk.
Since 1988, South Korea has been democratically governed, but has history of military interventions in politics. During the Korean war martial law was imposed several times, and the country’s first president Syngman Rhee was an authoritarian ruler. Rhee was ousted by a military coup in 1961. Major General Park Chung-hee seized power, ruling until he was assassinated in 1979. Tanks and soldiers entered Seoul later that year as Major General Chun Doo-hwan led South Korea’s second military coup. Another authoritarian he brutally suppressed opposition to his regime, that was eventually ousted by mass protests in 1987.
This history meant that many commentators and observers were very concerned about the situation. However, in this case, democratic checks and balances operated effectively and the crisis was resolved quickly and peacefully, the nation’s parliament immediately countermanding the decree. Although there is still political debate about details like managing the transition of power and whether the military should have responded to the president’s decree. My assessment is that this crisis demonstrates the strength of South Korean governance. The fact that the decision was protested immediately by the wider population, that the parliament acted quickly and effectively and that the military easily acquiesced are indications that South Korea’s democratic institutions are strong.
India distancing itself from Russia
India is an emergent power in the Pacific region the nation’s ‘Act East’ foreign policy doctrine starting to take effect with Indian politicians and warships visiting the region. Reinforcing existing links with Japan and Australia via the Quadrilateral Dialogue (the Quad). Additionally, this year, India announced its plan to build an embassy in Timor Leste. All factors that make India a country that people interested in the Pacific should study.
Recently, the Institute for the Study of War reported that “India is reportedly attempting to decouple its defense industry from Russia as it increases cooperation with Western defense companies and builds up its own defense industrial base (DIB).” The Institute quoted an article in Bloomberg, dated 3 December.
This reporting indicates that India is reducing military equipment orders from Russia, choosing instead to develop defence industry links with US and European suppliers. It was reported that India has cancelled plans to collaborate with Russia to build helicopters and fighter planes. Further, that plans to lease a Russian nuclear-powered submarine for training purposes are unlikely to proceed.
It is also noteworthy that in August, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi visited Ukraine and the Institute for the Study of War reports that after this visit the US purchased Indian artillery ammunition and shipped it to Ukraine. If this reporting is correct, it indicates India is politically distancing itself from Russia.
Although India and Russia have a long history of defence partnership, it is no surprise that India wants to look at other arrangements. In a commercial sense, the war in Ukraine has proven that Russian equipment is second-rate and not suitable for the modern battlefield. Further, any defence industry partnership requires a high-level of trust, and Russia’s corrupt state infrastructure impacts on commercial governance. Military procurements are often expensive, and include long-term training and maintenance requirements so it is important that a defence partner is going to deliver on these commitments.
At a political level, Russia is rapidly losing international influence, both India and China have expressed their concerns about Putin’s nuclear threats. Putin’s use of nuclear threats is de-stabilising and undermine Russian diplomacy because Russia is either a rogue state that may be willing to use nuclear weapons, or Putin is a posturing bully. And, neither option represents a good choice for an international partner.
In the Pacific, the impact is likely to be India’s increasing participation in the region’s security architecture. Leveraging off the Quad, and commercial alliances it is likely that Indian will become more engaged with Pacific powers like the US, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Nations with strong defence industries that will be keen to partner with India. Defence companies work closely with the home nation militaries, and this will encourage more shared training with India. Therefore, expect to see India developing closer defence ties with the Pacific’s larger powers.
Sweden, an example of NATO’s increasing interest in the Pacific
Recent statements by Swedish Defence Minister Pal Jonson indicate that his country is keen to develop stronger defence ties with the Pacific. Sweden’s position is indicative of a trend for NATO nations to become more engaged in the Pacific. Since the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept expanded the alliance’s area of interest to in include maritime trade in the Indo-Pacific region and highlighted China’s risk to European security, European nations have become more engaged in the Pacific.
Likewise, key Pacific nations, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have been provided with greater access to NATO decision-making, policy setting and military information sharing.
Speaking at Tokyo University, Jonson discussed how the war in Ukraine, specifically China and North Korea’s support for Russia highlights the interconnectedness of modern security discussions. Sweden recently released a new defence policy, and plans to increase its participation in international defence arrangements. Regarding the Pacific, Sweden plans to engage both through the alliance and bi-laterally with specific countries.
In the Pacific, Sweden’s activity will probably include more discussion about defence policy, military exchanges, liaison and training in the Pacific. Another important change is likely to be a significant increase in Swedish commercial activity. Sweden has an impressive armament industry that produces everything from ammunition, to submarines, warships and aircraft. Since 2022, Sweden already has a defence technology and equipment transfer deal with Japan, and will certainly be looking for other partners in the region.
One opportunity for partnership may be the Global Combat Air Programme, a project to develop a 6th Generation fighter aircraft that currently involves, the UK, Italy and Japan. Sweden previously investigated a partnership with the UK, but withdrew but may want to engage in the programme. It is likely that we will see more integration of programmes like this as technologically capable Pacific nations like Japan, South Korea and Australia start to work together with NATO countries.
After the announcement in November that the European Union is signing defence agreements with Japan and South Korea, the Swedish Defence Minister’s comments are further evidence of European/NATO security interest in the Pacific. We should expect to see more, whether it is NATO’s Pacific partners (South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) participating in policy develop, commercial collaboration or joint training exercises. A dynamic that will influence security discussions in the region.
Melanesian update
A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.
Papua New Guinea’s police budget increases
The release of Papua New Guinea’s 2025 annual budget includes a noteworthy increase in police funding. Key highlights include a 19% increase in the staff budget, Papua New Guinea’s Treasurer Ian Ling-Stuckey stating the aim is to increase the police force’s size by 10,000 officers in the next five years. Additionally, the force’s operation budget will increase by 67%, allowing for modernisation of key equipment.
The Royal Papua New Guinea Constabulary faces a huge task, the nation is large, rugged and riven by tribal feuds that can escalate into violence. Recently, firearms have become more accessible meaning that inter-tribal warfare has become bloodier.
Increasing the police budget is a step in the right direction, providing more resources so that the Royal Papua New Guinea Constabulary can enforce the law more effectively, providing people across the nation with greater safety and stability.
Australia increases police support for Solomon Islands
This week the Australian government announced it will increase support for the Solomon Islands police force. Solomon Islands, is a small nation to the north-east of Australia, that in recent years has become diplomatically closer to China. This situation means there is intense Sino-Australian competition for influence in the nation.
Solomon Islands has a history of political violence, and between 1998 and 2003 the island was racked by warfare between rival ethnic groups. The Australian led Regional Assistance Mission Solomon Islands (RAMSI) stopped the fighting, disarmed the various militant groups and supported the re-establishment of government. Internal security remains an important issue for the government.
Solomon Islands has discussed increasing the size of the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force since early this year, to a total of about 3,000 staff. In late November, Police Minister Jimson Tanangada and a group of officials, ministers and army officers visited Townsville to discuss security matters. Townsville is the garrison town for Australia’s 3rd Brigade, so is the likely launch pad for future Australian security assistance to Solomon Islands.
Since then, Australia has announced plans to increase the number of staff deployed to assist with training, and will increase amount of equipment it supplies to Solomon Islands. This discussion is noteworthy because it may indicate a closer relationship developing between Solomon Islands and Australia.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
