2:00PM Water Cooler 3/21/2024 | naked capitalism

Less than a year to go!

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Trump (R): “Stormy Weather Ahead for Trump” [Jonathan Alter, Washington Monthly]. Bragg (NY). “After jury selection begins in April, we’re looking at the first criminal trial of a U.S. president in American history…. Last week, the trial was delayed—probably for a few weeks—pending a hearing about the mysterious release of thousands of pages of documents from federal prosecutors who had pursued the hush money case but declined to prosecute Trump.” And:

Judge Merchan ruled that Trump’s lawyers will not be allowed to:

That’s a lot! Meanwhile: “District Attorney Bragg’s whole case is admissible.” Concluding: “It ain’t overthrowing the government. It ain’t stealing classified documents. But it’ll do.” • I doubt it. I mean, come on. “Squillionaire pays off mistress. Film at 11.”

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Trump (R): “GOP primaries flash warning signs for Trump” [The Hill]. “In primary elections in Ohio and other states, a sizable number of GOP voters still cast ballots for former rivals to the ex-president. That’s potentially a big problem for Trump, because it suggests not all GOP primary voters are warming to him… A handful of states cast ballots Tuesday in the presidential primaries, including Ohio, Florida and Arizona. Trump won Ohio and Florida by roughly fourth-fifths of the vote, but former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley notched around 14 percent in each.”

Trump (R): “Trump has an early lead on Biden. But problems are piling up around him” [Politico]. “‘The only person who can beat Donald Trump is Donald Trump,’ said David Urban, a former senior Trump campaign adviser. ‘I don’t think we’re there yet.’ Despite it all, Trump remains in an enviable position, leading Biden in early polls as the incumbent president clocks in with historically bad approval ratings. But Trump’s advantage is also less than 2 percentage points — hardly a commanding lead — and he is still sitting below 50 percent. In the earliest days of the general election campaign, Trump’s often improvised remarks contrast with his opponent’s more carefully scripted campaign outings — and that approach brings some downsides, as evidenced in recent days.”

Trump (R): “Thus Far, Trump Has Huge Coattails. The Best Coattails.” [The American Conservative]. “President Donald Trump’s victories in last night’s primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio were foregone conclusions. All of Trump’s challengers have already exited the race and, for the third straight presidential cycle, Trump has secured the Republican nomination. This alone suggests Trump’s takeover of the GOP is near total, but there’s even more evidence down ballot. On Tuesday, Trump’s chosen candidates beat expectations. Nowhere was that clearer than in Ohio’s senate primary. The businessman Bernie Moreno bested state Sen. Matt Dolan by nearly twenty points. Moreno received more than 50 percent of the vote and carried every county in the Buckeye state….For now, however, Trump is still king and, for smaller realms all around the country, kingmaker. Trump has made 88 endorsements in the primaries thus far. Not a single candidate for federal office has lost their primary with Trump’s backing. Only three Trump-endorsed state legislative candidates have lost. Across state and federal primaries, Trump is 58 for 61 thus far. When November rolls around, the 58 winners will have the added benefit of Trump on the top of the ticket once again.”

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Biden (D): “US Vote Pitches Bidenomics Against Celebrity” [Bloomberg]. “President Joe Biden has centered his campaign on his flagship industrial policy, dubbed Bidenomics, which involves pumping billions of dollars into creating US manufacturing jobs in industries of the future like chipmaking and clean technology…. But, as Akayla Gardner reports, it’s a theme that has largely failed to resonate with voters so far — even in places like Bethlehem [Northampton County] whose geographical and political landscape has been shaped by heavy industry…. The uncomfortable truth for Biden is that many voters are preoccupied with the rising cost of living and have yet to feel the upswing from his policies. Even where they do, they don’t necessarily credit the president for the jobs that are on offer. With the US economy booming, there may yet be time for Bidenomics to cut through.”

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Williamson (I):

“All that is gold does not glitter,Not all those who wander are lost;The old that is strong does not wither,Deep roots are not reached by the frost.From the ashes a fire shall be woken,A light from the shadows shall spring;Renewed shall be blade that was broken,The…

— Marianne Williamson (@marwilliamson) March 20, 2024

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CA: “California Primary Results Encouraging for Republicans” [Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics]. “The GOP posted its biggest gains in heavily Hispanic districts, seeing its vote share improve in the 42nd (Rep. Robert Garcia), the 29th (Rep. Napolitano), and the 24th (Rep. Carbajal). This is consistent with poll data suggesting a swing toward Republicans among Hispanics.”

OH: “Bernie Moreno easily wins Ohio Senate Republican primary, will take on Sen. Sherrod Brown” [Cincinnati Enquirer]. “Moreno, a businessman from the Cleveland area, won with nearly 51% of the vote, according to unofficial results. He defeated state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose in a contest that pitted the GOP’s old guard against allies of former President Donald Trump…. Moreno previewed his general election pitch, saying Brown is beholden to President Joe Biden and wants to pretend otherwise. But the three-term senator remains confident about his prospects. During a campaign event Monday, Brown said the Republicans opposing him are on the wrong side of abortion, minimum wage and other issues…. In the end, a flurry of visits to Ohio from Trump and his allies pushed Moreno over the finish line. And it wasn’t the close outcome that polls predicted…. Brown, who’s seeking a fourth term in office, is one of two Democrats defending his seat in a state won by Trump. Republicans believe he’s vulnerable and see an opportunity to flip Ohio as they try to regain control of the U.S. Senate.” • Contrast that coverage to this–

OH: “In Key Ohio Senate Primary, Republicans Go with Trump Again” [Center for Politics]. ” Both Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) got their man in the Ohio GOP Senate primary on Tuesday night, as businessman Bernie Moreno (R) blew open what polls, in aggregate, suggested was a close race. A major Democratic outside spending group connected to Schumer effectively spent on Moreno’s behalf. continuing a common Democratic strategy of spending in the other party’s primary.” The Pied Piper strategy has taken on a life of its own…. More: “Moreno, backed by Donald Trump, follows the path taken two years ago by now-Sen. J.D. Vance (R), who, like Moreno, was a Trump-endorsed candidate without previous officeholding experience who beat out a field that included some more experienced pols to get the Ohio GOP Senate nomination.” And: “Moreno’s best counties, not too surprisingly, were the pair of Mahoning and Trumbull. Both were double-digit Barack Obama counties that backed Trump in 2020—when Brown was last up, in 2018, he carried the pair 59%-41%, so he will probably want to limit his slippage here in the general election.” And: “Democrats are surely hoping that Moreno represents a continuation of the terrible Senate candidates Republicans produced in so many key races in 2022. And it is true that Moreno has never faced a test like this—he ran in the 2022 contest but dropped out well before the election—and could fall on his face, just like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Donald Bolduc in New Hampshire, and Blake Masters in Arizona. That said, it’s not obvious that he will, and it may not be all that much of a lift to just get Trump voters to also back the Trump-endorsed Senate Republican candidate in a state that is likely to vote for Trump by high-single or maybe even double digits.” • Worth reading in full.

Republican Funhouse

“As Medicare Advantage’s shortcomings echo in the press, key legislators still push to privatize traditional Medicare” [Trudy Lieberman, HEALTH CARE un-covered]. “[Rolling Stone’s Andrew] Perez points out that one item buried in the 887-page Heritage Foundation blueprint written to inform a potential new Trump administration has attracted little attention so far. It is a scheme to ‘make Medicare Advantage the default enrollment option’ for people who are newly eligible for Medicare, he wrote. David Lipschutz, associate director of the Center for Medicare Advocacy, says the Heritage plan would hasten privatization. ‘Upon becoming eligible for Medicare now everyone starts with traditional Medicare as the default but can opt out of that program and later choose an Advantage plan,’ Lipschutz says. The Heritage proposal, however, would have people start with Medicare Advantage plans, apparently with the opportunity to opt-out. With this arrangement, you can see how easy it would be for Medicare, as we know it, to ‘wither on the vine’ since many people new to Medicare are not well versed in the difference between the two options and instead are swayed by the TV advertising beckoning them to Medicare Advantage plans.” • Project 2025 taking a cue from nudge theory. Swell.

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Working class Dems who campaign on economics beat Trumpists in elections” [Pluralistic]. “The Democratic Party Pizzaburger Theory of Electioneering is: half the electorate wants a pizza, the other half wants a burger, so we’ll give them all a pizzaburger and make them all equally dissatisfied, thus winning the election… But no one wants a pizzaburger. The Biden administration’s approach of letting the Warren/Sanders wing pick the antitrust enforcers while keeping judicial appointments in the Manchin-Synematic universe is a catastrophe in which progressive Dem regulators (who serve one term) are thwarted by corporatist Dem judges (who serve for life)… Jacobin teamed up with the Center for Working-Class Politics, Yougov and the Center for Work and Democracy at ASU and analyzed [the 2022 midterms]: Their conclusion: candidates from working-class backgrounds who campaigned on economic policies like high-quality jobs, higher minimum wages, a jobs guarantee, ending offshoring and outsourcing, building infrastructure and bringing manufacturing back to the US won with a 50% share of the vote in rural and working-class districts. Dems who didn’t lost with a 35% share of the vote.” • Well, now the liberals have another target for decapitation, just like the 50-state strategy, or the Sanders campaign(s)…

Realignment and Legitimacy

Population shifts:

In general, it seems like people are moving toward heat, not away from it (with some exceptions, like Maine and the Mountain States). Odd. Readers?

#COVID19

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Covid is Airborne

“Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission during a movie theater outbreak in Incheon in the Republic of Korea, November 2021: a retrospective study” [Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives]. The conclusion: “SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurred within the theater, and extended into the community, via a moviegoer who attended the 3rd screening during the viral incubation period after contracting the virus from a family member. This study emphasizes the importance of adequate ventilation in theaters.” And from the Descriptive Analysis: “The curve indicated a single exposure outbreak with a propagated pattern, suggesting that infections occurred continuously through person-to-person transmission following shared exposure to a common vehicle during the movie screening on November 3, 2021.” And: “A spot map was created to assess the spatial distribution of the outbreak. Audience members were seated in close proximity to each other without social distancing, predominantly in the rear seats. During the 3rd screening, most individuals identified as close contacts contracted the virus. In contrast, for the 4th screening, the outbreak was not confined to a particular area; rather, the confirmed cases were more uniformly dispersed throughout the venue.” That is, the virus spreads like smoke.

Maybe engineering has bad vibes?

Did you know? It’s entirely possible to control airborne respiratory viruses. ASHRAE has a standard that spells out for HVAC engineers the requirements for controlling infectious aerosols.

Anyone who is telling you mass sickness isn’t preventable is lying #LongCovidAwarenessDay pic.twitter.com/o8XhL6Q7sD

— Nick #AirborneCovidExhaustsTCells😷 Anderegg (@NickAnderegg) March 15, 2024

Infection

About those personalk risk assessments:

Sequelae

About brain damage:

Here is a link to “this thread.”

Morbidity and Mortality

“Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021” [The Lancet]. From the Abstract: “Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies.”

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at the level of previous Trump peaks. Not a great victory. Note also the area “under the curve,” besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.

[2] (Biobot) Midwest ticks up.

[3] (CDC Variants) As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

[4] (ER) “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Looks like a very gradual leveling off to a non-zero baseline, to me.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.

[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit in the rear view mirror.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 dominates utterly.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 2,000 to 210,000 on the week ending March 16th, 2024, below market expectations of 215,000. At the same time, continuing unemployment claims were relatively unchanged at 1,807,000 for the earlier week. The data continued to show that the US labor market remains tight, aligned with the Federal Reserve’s latest assessment and adding leeway for the central bank to delay the start of rate cuts.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US decreased to 3.2 in March 2024 from 5.2 in February but came above market estimates of -2.3. It was the second consecutive expansionary reading since the index for shipments ticked up 1 point to 11.4, and the index for new orders turned positive for the first time since October.”

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Antitrust: “U.S. Sues Apple, Accusing It of Maintaining an iPhone Monopoly” [New York Times]. “The Justice Department joined 16 states and the District of Columbia to file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple on Thursday, the federal government’s most significant challenge to the reach and influence of the company that has put iPhones in the hands of more than a billion people. In an 88-page lawsuit, the government argued that Apple had violated antitrust laws with practices that were intended to keep customers reliant on their iPhones and less likely to switch to a competing device. The tech giant prevented other companies from offering applications that compete with Apple products like its digital wallet, which could diminish the value of the iPhone, the government said. Apple’s policies hurt consumers and smaller companies that compete with some of Apple’s services, in the form of “higher prices and less innovation,” the lawsuit said. ‘Each step in Apple’s course of conduct built and reinforced the moat around its smartphone monopoly,’ the government said in the lawsuit, which was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey.”

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Manufacturing: “Airline CEOs Seek Meeting With Boeing Directors to Address Production Problems” [Wall Street Journal]. “A group of airline chiefs recently requested a meeting with Boeing’s board to express concern over the Alaska Airlines accident and production problems that have upended the industry’s plans, people familiar with the matter said…. The request to meet with Boeing’s directors is an unusual sign of frustration with the manufacturer’s problems and its leader, David Calhoun. The Boeing CEO isn’t expected to attend the planned meetings.” And this: “Boeing was taking more measures to reduce so-called traveled work, where problems with parts or aircraft are moved along its production lines and addressed later. That effort will also slow production, which West said would increase later in the year.” I don’t think Edward Deming woudl approve of “travelled work” at all. Who decided on that? And a straw in the wind: “Kayak allows users searching for flights to exclude specific aircraft. Usage of that option has increased recently. A spokeswoman said Kayak plans to introduce a new badge that will display the aircraft model in flight results in response to recent customer requests.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing whistleblower’s lawsuit against aerospace giant continues despite death” [WCSC]. “The Charleston County Coroner reports Barnett died from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, but has not formally ruled on a cause of death.” Meanwhile, the suit continues, and Barnett’s lawyers have released “a redacted copy of the Amended Complaint (filed May 4, 2021) and the Court’s May 31, 2022 decision denying Boeing’s Partial Motion to Dismiss.” And:

These complaints in the suit include:

Boeing maintained an “illegal” program not approved by the FAA “that allowed mechanics to inspect and approve their own work” known as “Multi-function Process Performer” to meet deadlines; Barnett’s performance rating later went from a 40 to 16.
Managers “pushing Barnett to work outside of the proper procedures”
Parts were “stolen” from one airplane and installed in another without any documentation; all corrective action was “canceled” without an investigation
In August 2014, the company failed to clean up titanium slivers from fasteners used to hold down floorboards that littered wire bundles and electrical components despite potential electrical shorting. Barnett was later removed from the project after complaining.
In September 2014, Barnett learned he was issued a corrective action plan for documenting process violations in writing one month later against company rules to immediately notify employees claiming it was a “surprise attack.”
In July 2016, Barnett was ordered to “let it go” after objecting to close out more than 400 nonconforming Shop Order Instance parts without investigation while discovering 200 that had been “pencil whipped” or fabricated.
In August 2016, Barnett was criticized and removed from an investigation into emergency passenger oxygen tanks where it’s estimated approximately 25% in 787s are not functional, after he pushed for leadership to investigate.
In September 2016, Barnett was removed as a team leader after discovering that all previously delivered airplanes and missing/incomplete/incorrect serial number data after urging corrections and notifications to customers were needed
That same month, Barnett’s manager reportedly “took a defective part” from the scrap bin and had it installed on another airplane without any documentation or rework against FAA requirements and the company’s procedures. Barnett claimed he was blocked from a 737 Propulsion Quality Manager position after filing an HR complaint, which Boeing found was “unsubstantiated”

WCSC is a local South Carolina TV station. Meanwhile, the only story on Boeing from the prize-winning Post and Courier is a reprinted transcript from The Street: “Boeing expects major financial impact from recent incidents.” Priorities! Meanwhile, from a second TV station–

Manufacturing: “Lawyers for Boeing whistleblower release full complaint against the company” [WCBD]. A more detailed and prosy version of the complaint. On the “Multi-function Process Performer”: “During this time, Barnett claims that Boeing upper management pushed for quality to deviate from the rules so that production would meet deadlines. One way, in particular, is through the Multi-function Process Performer (MFPP) program. The MFPP program allowed Boeing mechanics to inspect and approve their own work, Barnett claimed. This program was allegedly implemented without FAA approval and was in direct violation of Boeing’s Production Certificate from the FAA pursuant. The Senior Quality Control Manager objected to the MFPP program and pushed for Boeing to follow the rules. Barnett claims that in response to the Senior Quality Control Manager’s objections, he was threatened with termination by superiors. The complaint says that this Senior Quality Control Manager then reached out to contacts in Seattle and was transferred with a downgrade in 2012 back to the state of Washington. In 2012, Barnett also protested against the MFPP program, saying it was illegal; however, no investigation was conducted.” • Once agaim, nothing from the Post and Courier. Really, somebody should contact management… And from another local TV station–

Manufacturing: “Boeing whistleblower’s retaliation complaint revealed after mysterious death in Charleston” [ABC4]. “The next month, Barnett filed an ethics complaint against leadership for retaliation, a hostile work environment, and being blacklisted from acquiring other positions, according to the lawsuit documents. It also says he requested his complaint be investigated by someone outside of BSC. He was told it would be handled outside of BSC, but was instead turned over to local HR. The complaint says that same month, he sent an email to Boeing Corporate Ethics in Washington, D.C. and voiced his concerns about the handling of his complaint. After being assured Barnett’s concerns would be properly investigated, it was once again turned over to local HR in South Carolina, according to the complaint.” • Obvious pressure from the head office. And Is the head of HR in Charleston the Post and Courier’s editor’s brother-in-law, or what?

Manufacturing: “Whistleblower John Barnett claimed Boeing managers spied on him before his alleged suicide” [New York Post]. “Boeing whistleblower John Barnett claimed the company’s management had been spying on him in the bombshell court case he was working on when he was mysteriously found dead…. Another section of the lawsuit stated: ‘In June 2014, Barnett submitted a complaint to Corporate Ethics against [redacted] for violating procedures, ignoring process violations, pushing Barnett to ‘work in the grey areas,’ and having another manager spy on Barnett…. ‘That’s the way it’s done there. There were always moles who would throw you under the bus to look good to the big bosses. They weren’t about team unity; you never know who you could trust,’ a Boeing mid-level manager, who asked to remain anonymous over fear of losing their job, told The Post Wednesday.” And: “‘It is a criminal felony offense to not properly document the build record of an aircraft. By pressuring Barnett to not follow processes … Boeing was ordering Barnett to commit a felony offense.’” • Sounds like a hellhole. No wonder Qatar Airways refused to buy 787s made in Charleston (preferring Everett, WA).

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Manufacturing: “Allegations of staggering criminality by Boeing spelled out in complaint by whistleblower John Barnett, released by lawyers after his death” [WSWS]. “Police, so far, have also refused to release the security camera footage from the Holiday Inn where Barnett was staying. In the original police report, the cops acknowledged that the hotel had security cameras installed and facing the parking lot where Barnett’s vehicle and body were located.” • Haven’t seen this on the cameras elsewhere, however.

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Tech: AI enshittification (1):

New: multiple published scientific papers include language that appears to have been generated by AI-tools like ChatGPT. Search for “as of my last knowledge update” on Google Scholar, you get 115 results. It’s a phrase used by OpenAI’s ChatGPT https://t.co/5OimGqTziW pic.twitter.com/VdX1Vl3tUN

— Joseph Cox (@josephfcox) March 18, 2024

Tech: AI enshittification (2):

Large language models are architecturally incapable of forming new abstractions.

Which is one reason why their value as programming assistants is vanishingly small.

— Grady Booch (@Grady_Booch) March 19, 2024

Tech: AI enshittification (3):

I think this is one of the best examples illustrating how LLM Al is a purely statistical model and is not doing any kind of actual “thinking” or “logic” and cannot be trusted for tasks that require even a modicum of reasoning, a short 🧵: https://t.co/Fy4PNtecWj

— Chris Alvino (@ChrisAlvino) March 15, 2024

Tech: AI enshittification (4):

Large language models are architecturally incapable of forming new abstractions.

Which is one reason why their value as programming assistants is vanishingly small.

— Grady Booch (@Grady_Booch) March 19, 2024

Tech: “Pluralistic: The Coprophagic AI crisis” [Pluralistic]. “The question is, why the fuck would anyone write the web if the only “person” who can find what they write is an AI’s crawler, which ingests the writing for its own training, but has no interest in steering readers to see what you’ve written? If AI search ever becomes a thing, the open web will become an AI CAFO and search crawlers will increasingly end up imbibing the contents of its manure lagoon…. There’s a certain intuitive case for this being a bad idea, akin to feeding cows a slurry made of the diseased brains of other cows…. But “The Curse of Recursion: Training on Generated Data Makes Models Forget,” a recent paper, goes beyond the ick factor of AI that is fed on botshit and delves into the mathematical consequences of AI coprophagia: Co-author Ross Anderson summarizes the finding neatly: ‘using model-generated content in training causes irreversible defects.’” • I’ve been muttering about AI autocoprophagia for some time, and if it’s finally propagated, I’m a happy camper.

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 76 Extreme Greed (previous close: 72 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 72 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Mar 21 at 12:23:14 PM ET.

Holier than Thou

Cf. Matthew 23:1-7:

March 19, 2024

A. Liberty U. – Super King AirB. Samaritan’s Purse – Boeing 757C. Spirit of America Foundation (Dean Sikes) – Cessna 550D. Word of Life Christian Center (Leroy Thompson) – Falcon 900E. Jerry Savelle Ministries – Falcon 50 pic.twitter.com/NRHgU6w6ek

— pastorplanes (@pastorplanes) March 20, 2024

“Thousands of Churches Will Likely Close Down. What Happens to All That Real Estate?” [The Roys Report]. “That prediction of church closings is based on the unrelenting math of religion in America — there are ever more church pews with not enough people to fill them. Those who go to church prefer to be part of large congregations, flocking to packed-out megachurches while driving by a host of struggling congregations with 60 people or fewer. [Rev. Mark Elsdon], who is executive director of Pres House, a campus ministry in Madison, Wisconsin, said the 100,000 figure is an estimate based on trends in worship attendance. There is little data about how many churches close or what happens to houses of worship when they are no longer needed by a congregation…. But even a half or a quarter of that number, Elsdon said, would be significant. ‘The bottom line is that there are fewer and fewer people identifying as Christians and attending traditional church activities in church buildings,’ Elsdon said… ‘Therefore, there are far more church buildings today than will be viable or needed in the future. That’s just the way it is.’ The book’s chapters, each by a different expert, outline some of the changes facing churches and some of the possible outcomes for former church buildings, from affordable housing to hubs for social entrepreneurship…. Many church buildings could be gone for good — sold off to become apartments, breweries, wedding venues or other secular uses. Or they could be gone but still used for good causes, depending on what the congregations who used to own them decide to do.”

Zeitgeist Watch

“The joys of divorce” (poem) [Michael Smith, Crying in the Wilderness]. “Nothing like money, makes you hate someone–”

Class Warfare

“The Keys to a Long Life Are Sleep and a Better Diet—and Money” [Wired]. “The top 10 percent in both the UK and the US live over a decade more than the bottom 10 percent. It’s not even that they live more, they live more healthy lives. Why is that? Well the poor often don’t have the chance to exercise, their diets are often poor, and they work multiple jobs and have problems with sleep. All these things we think we can do, they’re harder if you’re poor and have to juggle jobs, child care, et cetera. One worry I have is that if we discover sophisticated interventions—like turning on stem cells and so on, or having to give transcription factors to people intravenously—depending on the sophistication of the intervention only the rich might be able to afford them. That would make the disparity even worse. Not only are the rich living longer, they’re going to live even longer and healthier.” • Yep.

“Record numbers of wealthy Americans are looking for ways to live overseas” [Business Insider]. “‘With political divisions and societal tensions at an all-time high, American investors, entrepreneurs, and wealthy families are increasingly hedging their bets and pursuing backup citizenship or residence abroad, signaling declining faith in the domestic outlook,’ [Mehdi Kadiri, the head of North America at Henley & Partners] said in the report. ‘We anticipate similar strong demand in 2024,’ Kadiri added, ‘as more high-net-worth individuals across the political spectrum seek to hedge uncertainty.’”

News of the Wired

“Flying Is Weird Right Now” [The Atlantic]. The URL is more pointed: “boeing-737-safety-air-travel.” “Flying has, in a historical sense at least, never been safer…. So what’s really going on? I suspect it’s a confluence of two distinct factors. The first is that although air safety is getting markedly better over time, the experience of flying is arguably worse than ever…. All of that is now coupled with an increase in passenger volume: In 2023, flight demand crept back up to near pre-pandemic levels, and staffing has not caught up. It is also an especially expensive time to fly. Pile on unruly passengers, system outages, baggage fees, carry-on restrictions, meager drink and snack offerings, and the trials and tribulations of merely coexisting with other travelers who insist on lining up at the gate 72 hours before their zone boards and you have a perfectly combustible situation.” • And then there’s all that damn coughing. Really kills the vibe.

“Frustrated visitors sue National Park Service over cashless policies” [SFGate]. “Three people sued the National Park Service earlier this month for its policy not to accept cash payments at a growing number of locations…. The park service instituted cashless policies at approximately 29 locations, according to the lawsuit. The plaintiffs said cash payments were refused at sites in Arizona, New York and Georgia.” • Good. More like this please. Is cash legal tender, or not?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant)

EM writes: “Trees on The River Shannon (Ireland).”

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