On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden will deliver the State of the Union address. What Biden will say isn’t known at this point. Still, other than any presidential debates—if there will be any debates—the address could provide him with his largest audience of the year, along with an opportunity to clearly define the terms of the 2024 election to a nation that seems to be having memory problems.
The date for this address is roughly a month later than usual. That’s thanks to the invitation from Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. Maybe that date was intended as a snub. At least one Republican representative has called on Johnson to cancel the address altogether. Or maybe Johnson picked a late date because Republicans were busy fumbling their way through a series of near-misses with a government shutdown.
Whatever the case, the late date means that the primaries are effectively over. America is set for a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and on Thursday night, the spotlight belongs to Biden.
Later in the day, Biden’s team will likely release portions of the speech, so by the time he walks into the joint session of Congress, some of the highlights of his address will be known. But even without notes, some of the topics to be covered are obvious.
Looking back to last year, Biden delivered a speech that was just short of incredible. Anyone who thinks Biden isn’t going to knock this thing out of the park has forgotten what he did in 2023, when he delivered a positive, forceful speech that bolstered confidence in his ability to lead and showcased what can be accomplished with progressive legislation. It was, as Daily Kos’ Kerry Eleveld reported at the time, a thing of beauty.
During a robust 70-minute speech, a president not exactly known for his oratory skills, took Americans on a drive through an impressive array of his accomplishments, invited them to hope for more good works, and goaded Republicans into applauding his red line in the sand: No cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
Was the speech too long? Perhaps. Was it effective? Hell yeah.
Since Republicans keep trying to claim that Biden isn’t vigorous enough to deliver a long speech, while Trump stands out there and makes nonsense noises for two hours at a time, don’t be surprised if this year’s speech is also on the longer side.
Biden can also point to last year’s speech when elaborating on his accomplishments. The Republican House may have argued their way through a year of shockingly low productivity, but scoring Biden’s accomplishments against where we were a year ago is going to look pretty good.
Expected topics
Economy. Inflation is down, gas prices have tumbled, unemployment is near record lows, and consumer confidence is up. Biden may have played lightly on the economic accomplishments last year, but 2024 is likely to be more forceful when it comes to reminding people just how bad things were under Trump, and just how much they’ve improved.
Infrastructure. Republicans have spent the past year trying to take credit for infrastructure projects funded by a bill they voted against. Expect Biden to both tweak the GOP for their attempts to show up when it’s time to cut a ribbon, and to provide some big examples of the many projects cranking up due to the infrastructure bill. (But yeah, Biden will call the bill “bipartisan.” That’s just who he is, man.)
A thousand little paper cuts. Biden has been constantly pushing to end the “junk fees” that had grown up like weeds in American life. People may not notice a $5 bank fee here or a $20 extra credit-card charge there. But Biden is likely to remind them. Efforts to end hidden surcharges were a feature of last year’s speech that Biden is almost certain to revisit this area where a lot has changed and, like that streaming subscription you forgot about, it’s easy to overlook how this adds up until someone points it out.
Student loans. Thanks to Republicans who have spent taxpayer money filing lawsuit after lawsuit to fight every attempt to save taxpayer money on what many see as Biden’s signature issue, there’s a broad perception that Biden has lost on the issue of student loans. But despite The New York Times shrugging off Biden’s constant work on this topic in the most dismissive manner possible, there has been a lot of movement here. Expect Biden to total up the dollars—and the people who have benefited.
Border. On Thursday, CNN indicated that Biden has some surprise border action in store for the evening. Exactly where he will go on this issue isn’t clear, but don’t be surprised if he takes executive action that challenges the Republican narrative on this topic.
Clues from the guest list
Another early peek into Biden’s speech comes from looking at the guests his side has invited. This year, the list includes United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, and two women who could provide the most powerful moments of the evening.
Unions. Fain’s presence is a good indicator that Biden will spend some time talking about unions, and there’s a lot to brag about on this point. With UAW, SAG-AFTRA, and the WGA all having scored big contract wins after striking against powerful industries, this was a banner year for the power of collective bargaining. Give bonus points if Biden urges Fain to take his fight to America’s nonunion automakers.
Ukraine. Bringing Kristersson to the fight is a sure sign that Biden will talk about the expansion of NATO and the need to confront Russia in Ukraine. Americans may be more centered on what Biden has to say about the economy, or listening to how directly he goes after Trump, but this is what Europe wants to hear: definitive, heartfelt support for Ukraine, and for the effort to move an assistance package past the roadblock raised by Johnson.
Women. Just … women. Women and the incredibly demeaning, belittling hostility being demonstrated to them by Republican legislation and politicians in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which eliminated the constitutional right to abortion. Sitting with first lady Jill Biden during the speech will be two women who serve as exemplars of Republicans’ cruelty and regression:.
Kate Cox, who attempted to get an abortion in Texas while suffering through a nonviable pregnancy where her own life was at risk, only be jerked around by a zealously sadistic state attorney general and courts that made it clear that, in red states, women have no rights that aren’t subject to men’s interpretation.
Latorya Beasley, an Alabama mother who found herself caught in the middle of a round of in vitro fertilization treatments when the Alabama Supreme Court decided to take the Republican idea of “life begins at fertilization” to its (illogical) extreme.
There’s a very good chance that both these women will be there for more than just a name-drop and polite applause. In fact, Biden should use this opportunity to remind people how much has been lost to an extremist Supreme Court, and how great a risk there is in allowing Trump the opportunity to replace Clarence Thomas (age 75), Samuel Alito (age 73), or any other justice who chooses to retire or faces a health situation that forces them to leave the court.
There’s one thing that Biden will not talk about: the beyond-foolish suggestions that he use this moment to step aside.
That’s not going to happen. He’s in it to win it, Jack. And Thursday night is going to set the tone.
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