TikTok’s days in the United States could be numbered. By 19 January, the wildly popular app, used by 170 million Americans—including seven million businesses—may be wiped from app stores unless the Supreme Court intervenes or its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, relinquishes ownership.
The ban would mark an unprecedented blow to the platform’s vast user base, severing creators from their audiences and leaving businesses scrambling for alternatives. Once the deadline passes, TikTok will no longer be available for download. Without regular updates, its performance will quickly unravel, leading to delays, glitches, and a slow descent into irrelevance.
APAC precedents and what are the lessons from the region?
TikTok has occasionally encountered opposition from governments in the region, primarily around explicit or political content. It has been briefly banned and reinstated in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Several pieces of content deemed to violate local law have been taken down in Vietnam. In Australia, TikTok is banned on all government-owned devices.
India: TikTok was banned in India overnight in June 2020 following an escalation of conflict along the India-China border. It was arguably the most popular of the 59 apps that were banned, with a user base that was believed to be 200 million strong and growing at a rapid clip. In the immediate aftermath of the ban, several homegrown apps, including Moj, Mitron, Chingari, and Ropso, attempted to stake a claim for TikTok’s compulsorily lapsed fanbase, drawing in billions in venture capital funding. However, many of these could not make a dent due to fragmented users and slow adoption rates. The main beneficiaries of the TikTok ban have been Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts.
Afghanistan: The Taliban government banned TikTok in April 2022, saying that the application was “misleading youths.”
Indonesia: TikTok Shop briefly ceased operations in Indonesia in October 2023 in compliance with new government regulations designed to protect offline marketplaces and merchants. However, TikTok bought a stake in Tokopedia, one-half of the Indonesian startup GoTo. It restarted operations in December 2023, using the e-commerce company’s retail backend. The deal that gave TikTok a controlling stake included a $840 million investment with commitments for a further $1.5 billion in funding.
China: While TikTok faces bans and scrutiny abroad, the international version of the app itself isn’t available in mainland China. Instead, Chinese users are directed to Douyin, a domestic version of TikTok that operates under strict censorship and content controls imposed by the Chinese Communist Party. Douyin mirrors TikTok’s functionality but adheres to China’s tightly regulated internet policies.
Nepal: In November 2023, Nepal banned TikTok nationwide, labelling the app as “detrimental to social harmony.” The sweeping move cut off access for all citizens, reflecting growing global concerns over the platform’s influence.
New Zealand: in New Zealand, restrictions took a more targeted approach. As of March 2024, lawmakers and parliamentary employees were prohibited from using TikTok on work devices. However, exceptions can be made if a lawmaker deems the app necessary for their democratic responsibilities. The ban does not extend to other government branches.
The Philippines: A bill to ban TikTok was filed by Manila based lawmaker Bienvenido Abante Jr with the aim to protect citizens from possible manipulation by any “foreign adversary” country. The bill was dismissed by the Philippines DICT which recommended stronger regulation of the apps instead.
Who are the biggest beneficiaries?
Meta’s Instagram Reels and Google’s YouTube Shorts are positioned to naturally landing spots for TikTok’s vast creator and user base. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed last year that Reels now account for more than 50% of user time spent on Instagram. Similarly, YouTube Shorts boasts over 2 billion logged-in monthly users, making both platforms well-equipped to absorb TikTok’s audience.
According to eMarketer, if TikTok is banned, Instagram would claim 22.2% of TikTok’s reallocated ad spend. Facebook would take 17.1% and YouTube would secure 10.7%. Other platforms like Snapchat, Pinterest, and Elon Musk’s X would collectively grab 18.3%, while connected TV companies, streamers, and digital media firms would scoop up the remaining 30% (chart below).
Platforms such as LinkedIn, Reddit, and Snapchat have already begun restructuring to mimic TikTok’s short-video format, signalling a broader shift in the social media landscape.
Who are the potential buyers?
As speculation around the ban intensifies, news of several potential buyers is making the rounds.
Project Liberty: Billionaire Frank McCourt’s group, including Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, has submitted a formal bid valuing TikTok’s U.S. operations (excluding its algorithm) at $20 billion. The group, dubbed “The People’s Bid,” aims to restructure TikTok with reduced data collection practices.
Bobby Kotick: The former Activision Blizzard CEO has reportedly expressed interest in acquiring TikTok and is said to have engaged with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and other financiers.
Doug McMillon: Walmart’s CEO remains a rumoured contender after a failed 2020 deal involving Oracle and Walmart. ByteDance has reportedly maintained communication with McMillon.
Microsoft: With its $3.1 trillion market cap, Microsoft has the resources to revisit its 2021 near-acquisition of TikTok. However, such a deal could attract federal scrutiny, despite Trump’s previous support for the sale.
Elon Musk: A surprising potential bidder, Musk has reportedly been floated as an option by ByteDance to take over TikTok. While this would raise antitrust concerns given Musk’s ownership of X, ByteDance has denied the rumours and called it “pure fiction.”
What’s next for influencers and brands?
Besides Instagram and YouTube, other platforms which stand to gain are Lemon8, Rednote.
TikTok recently allowed users to log onto its sister app, Lemon8, with their TikTok accounts. Also owned by ByteDance, Lemon8 has TikTok-similar filters and “Following” and “For You” feeds—and it allows users to share photo collages in an Instagram and Pinterest fashion. The app launched in America in 2023 but was initially released in Japan in 2020. It’s unclear whether Lemon8 will fall under TikTok’s ban because of its shared ownership.
Known as China’s version of Instagram, Xiaohongshu, which translates to RedNote, has a Pinterest-adjacent layout with video, livestreaming and shoppability features. The app, owned by Chinese company Xingyin Information Technology, launched in 2013 and features similar influencing content to TikTok, like beauty tutorials and lifestyle content.
Long before the potential ban, influencers would post the same content across TikTok and Instagram Reels, a short-video function of Instagram that launched in 2020. Most brands averaged similar outputs across TikTok and Instagram Reels in 2024; studies found that the viewership of Instagram Reels over 90 seconds outperformed TikTok posts. Both apps share similar sound and content trends from influencers and brands posting content across both.
YouTube Shorts allows YouTube users to scroll short videos on a page similar to TikTok and utilises YouTube’s selection of music. YouTube Shorts, which launched in 2020, also allows users to post snippets of their long video content to create shorter videos.
This article is a heavily edited version of Julia Walker’s original story on the TikTok ban, published by PRWeek. Campaign Asia-Pacific has made edits to provide regional context and relevance. You can read the original story here.
