Washington Firms Up New Nuclear Guidelines on North Korea

The United States and South Korea have agreed on a new nuclear strategic guideline that outlines a “swift, overwhelming and decisive” strike on North Korea in the event it launches or is about to launch a nuclear first strike against South Korea. Formally called Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula, it formalizes the deployment of US nuclear assets “on and around the Korean peninsula to deter and respond to potential nuclear attacks by the North.” The accord doesn’t specifically say if the US is actually deploying nuclear assets in South Korea, but the wording implies an immediate availability of nuclear weapons when the North actually or appears ready to strike the South.

“It means US nuclear weapons are specifically being assigned to mission on the Korean peninsula,” according to a Reuters report quoting Kim Tae Hyo, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s top security aide.

In Seoul, officials say the guideline’s wording implies US readiness to maintain a nuclear posture for “immediate” or simultaneous response in the event of a North Korean attack. In short, it presumably means providing more immediacy to the use of nuclear weapons in times of emergency involving North Korean attacks, thus strengthening the existing process outlined in Nuclear Consultative Group procedures agreed earlier between the two allies. A joint statement issued on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Washington on July 11 said “The (two) Presidents …highlighted that any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the ROK will be met with a swift, overwhelming and decisive response. ”

This accord responds to the new Russia-North Korea Strategic Partnership accord signed last month between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang, providing for Moscow’s automatic involvement in the next Korean war. This treaty comes in the wake of North Korea supplying conventional artillery shells to Russian troops now invading Ukraine. In return for this help, Putin has promised to deliver the latest-version ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines, and satellite technology to Kim. Russian military cooperation with North Korea has visibly increased in recent months as evidenced by frequent Russian military aircraft flying into Pyongyang, according to South Korean officials. Speaking on the sidelines of the July 11 NATO summit, Yoon has warned that North Korea is emerging as a new source of threat to the world peace. 

According to South Korean officials, the new guidelines provide for information-sharing on the North’s nuclear capability, contingency planning, exercise, and drills related to a nuclear conflict. Following the Russo-North Korean pact, the US has deployed a number of strategic assets including long-range bombers and nuclear submarines as well as aircraft carriers to Korean waters. But the document has other implications as well; it is also meant to undercut South Korea’s oft-expressed ambition for developing and acquiring its own independent nuclear force, which wouldn’t require third-party approval in responding to the North’s first strike. Seoul’s opinion-makers are still clamoring for an independent nuclear capability. The South Koreans want the nukes inside their country, not coming in from an outside US base. The reasoning is that South Korea not only shares a border with the nuclear-armed North, but lies close to other nuclear powers China and Russia that remain inimical to South Korea’s security interests. The latest accord with Washington has the effect of freezing domestic debate for an independent nuclear force.

Against the backdrop of new threats Russia poses in Europe and Asia, coupled with China’s growing aggressiveness in the South China Sea, Seoul is on the way to strengthening strategic ties with NATO, with President Yoon joining the NATO Summit for the third time this year, as part of the Indo-Pacific Four (IP-4) group that includes Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Seoul is stepping into new foreign policy initiatives, working closely with Euro-Pacific alliances to counter threats not only from North Korea but also from potential Russo-Chinese strategic challenges. As a part of this new global alignment, Seoul has welcomed Germany’s application to join the US-led United Nations Command, which maintains a brittle armistice line between North and South Korea. This decision reverses the previous Seoul government’s refusal to admit Germany.

Not only is Seoul tense over the new Russo-North Korean treaty, but it regards the North’s involvement in the Ukrainian War as a potential security risk for the entire Asia-Pacific region. For years, Japan and South Korea have watched with trepidation the North’s continuing test-firings of missiles over the Sea of Japan. They regard Russia’s provision of nuclear submarines and advanced jet fighters as a game-changer for North Korea. Shipments of North Korean artillery shells to the Ukraine front in recent months, and Russia’s payment for these conventional munitions with strategic missiles and other spy satellite technology, have impelled Seoul to reevaluate its global security posture. On the sidelines of the NATO summit, Yoon carefully stayed away from making any direct reference to providing arms to Ukraine, but it is already on the minds of defense experts here following Russia’s pact with the North.

For the moment, Yoon is resisting growing pressure to supply arms aid to Ukraine, but Seoul, in a way, is already indirectly involved, by becoming an arsenal for NATO members like Poland and Hungary. With Russia’s invasion triggering a global arms acquisition race, some NATO members like Poland and Hungary, not to mention countries like Malaysia and Indonesia in the Pacific, are increasing their defense procurement from South Korea, helping to boost Seoul as a major global arms supplier. Poland has already signed billions of dollars worth of contracts for delivery of tanks, howitzers, fighter jets, and ammunition of all specifications. There’s no need for shipment of these weapons as Seoul’s munitions suppliers are setting up shops and plants in Poland and Hungary, right in the heart of eastern Europe.

Seoul’s new role as a major arms supplier on the global market keeps expanding, now reaching the level of producing fighter aircraft engines, becoming the only country in Asia other than Japan and China to do so. Alarmed by the possibility of South Korea sending arms to Ukraine, Putin has openly warned Seoul against it.

Seoul’s growing economic and military power incurs a commensurate expansion of its responsibility as a regional power alongside Japan. Seoul’s often tense relations with China are becoming increasingly fraught, with Beijing refusing to heed Seoul’s warning against sending North Korean refugees crossing into China for food back to the North. Beijing’s behavior of forcibly kicking them back to the North to face firing squads or gulags has prompted strong protests in Seoul.

Thus with the Ukraine war proving to be a turning point, South Korea, by solidifying relations with Japan, is clearly charting a new strategic course on the side of the Europe-Indo-Pacific alliance. On his way to Washington to participate in the NATO Summit, President Yoon made a rare stop in Hawaii to visit the US Pacific Command, the first South Korean head of state to do so in more than two dozen years. Calling the Pacific Command a pillar of the bilateral security alliance, Yoon made the visit a showcase for his new strategic alliance with the US. “We need a strong power to protect our democracy and a rule-based alliance to protect ourselves from reckless forces,” he declared with a clenched fist before the US Indo-Pacific Command.” It was a message he was sending to Moscow and Beijing as much as to North Korea.