Election news – live: Tories face wipeout in poll as minister condemns D-Day blunder

Labour shadow justice secretary Shabana Mahmood has declined to rule out ending the government’s scheme to release prisoners up to 70 days early to free up spaces in full-to-bursting prisons, saying she would first need to “lift that bonnet and see what horrors await”.

She told the BBC: “I think actually the government needs to level with the public. We all know that prisons are running at either 98 per cent capacity or 99 per cent. It is a dereliction of duty that the government hasn’t actually released all of the figures about their early release scheme – they’ve actually been doing that in secret.

“It would be irresponsible for me from Opposition, without seeing the data about the number of offenders that have been released or having all of that information, to make those decisions now.”

When asked if she would rule out continuing early release, Ms Mahmood said: “It would be irresponsible to make those decisions from Opposition without all of the information to hand. An incoming Labour government, if we’re privileged enough to win, would have to lift that bonnet and see what horrors await.”

Cabinet minister Mel Stride said Nigel Farage’s attack on Rishi Sunak for not understanding “our culture” was “deeply regrettable”.

He told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme: “I think they are suggesting things – I’m not going to go any further than that because I didn’t want to stoke this whole thing up – but it just seems to me that that’s an ill-advised thing to have said.”

He added: “I feel very uncomfortable with that. We’ve had in our country, and it’s a source of great personal pride – as somebody who supported the prime minister, wanted him to be the leader of our party and our prime minister – that I’ve sat around a cabinet table that’s the most diverse in history.

“And I’m very proud of the fact that we have a British Asian who is right at the top of our government.” Mr Sunak’s “involvement in government has been characterised by outstanding public service, and I’m very proud of that”, he said.

Labour and the Conservatives “don’t really want to talk about the scale of the challenge facing them”, should they win the election, said Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

“Both parties have tied themselves to the, in my view, rather bizarre fiscal rule which is they want debt down,” he told Sky News.

“They don’t want to talk about tax increases because that frightens the voters. Maybe they’re just hoping they get lucky”.

Labour has assured the union Unite that it will create enough jobs to cover potential losses in the oil and gas sector, shadow justice secretary Shabana Mahmood has said – after the union refused endorse the party’s manifesto.

Ms Mahmood told Sky News: “Unite have some areas of policy where they would probably want us to go further but they did not push any of those issues to a vote.”

She added: “[Unite] recognise that actually change is coming, the issue is speed and transition on which we were able to provide assurances on plans that have been backed by independent experts.

“We will create over 100,000 jobs as part of our plans. These are good quality jobs in the same sector.”

Asked if the Unite leadership had confidence in those assurances, Ms Mahmood said: “That’s a matter for Unite and their own internal management of their union.”

A report has warned the next government it will have to cut the scope of what the state provides or raise taxes to maintain levels of departmental funding – despite Labour and the Conservatives vowing not to raise taxes.

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) report looks at how spending as a proportion of national income has changed since the 1950s and how it will change in the next government.

It said the current Government’s spending has increased by “significantly more” than under any previous post-war Conservative government.

IFS research economist Bee Boileau said whoever wins the General Election on July 4 “will have a choice”.

“They can cut the scope of what the state provides, or accept further worsening of public services which already look under strain,” she said. “Or they can raise taxes, or borrow more, in order to top up spending and maintain real-terms levels of departmental funding.

“Neither the Conservative Party nor the Labour Party has been clear about which of these options they would take. Neither has shown any ambition to cut the scope of the state.”

She continued: “Both have ruled out increases in major taxes. Both have committed to a debt target that would prevent them from borrowing more.

“But, absent of really significant improvements in growth forecasts, one of these options must be chosen. The trade-offs here cannot be solved by denying their existence.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper are set to visit the East of England for a campaign visit related to crackdown on antisocial behaviour.

Scotland’s first minister John Swinney and SNP candidates will head to Paisley, Renfrewshire, as part of their ongoing bid for reelection.

Meanwhile, Scottish Tory deputy leader Meghan Gallacher will be joined by Perth and Kinross-shire candidate Luke Graham to campaign in Perthshire.

Britain is heading for the lowest general election turnout in modern history, pollsters have warned, with the main parties and their leaders leaving many voters “politically homeless”.

The warning of mass apathy follows Techne UK polling this week which suggests that even in the middle of an election campaign with just a month to polling day, 20 per cent of people have already decided not to vote.

The poll of 1,645 voting age British people by Techne for Independent Media reveals that while the “won’t vote” percentage of the population is normally high in non-election periods, it is expected to drop significantly during the short campaign (the period between the dissolution of parliament and election day).

David Maddox and Alicja Hagopian report:

The Conservatives have pledged to halt the rising costs of welfare by reforming the benefits system if they win the election.

The latest offer from the Tories would help to save some £12 billion a year by the end of the next parliament, the party has claimed, by ensuring more working age people currently claiming benefits have a job.

The number of working age people who are out of work has risen sharply since the pandemic, and is thought to be driven in part by those who have taken early retirement and those with long-term health conditions waiting for treatment on the NHS.

But the Conservative Party said the 40 per cent increase in economically inactive people from two million to 2.8 million overall since the pandemic is unsustainable.

They have promised to bring this total down, claiming the cost of providing benefits for working age people with health conditions could rise as high as £90 billion by the end of the next parliament.

Among the steps the party would take to do this are several where the early stages have been floated by the Tories in government.

This includes a £700 million investment in NHS mental health treatment, to ensure 500,000 more people can access talking therapies to help with poor mental health.

A pledge to reform the disability benefits system and target it at those most in need is also part of the offer, as is a tightening of the criteria for work capability assessments.

Previously announced plans to pass on the responsibility for issuing sick notes from GPs to specialist work and health professionals are within the Tories’ plans.

The Conservatives also promise to toughen benefit sanction rules, speed up the rollout of universal credit, and clamp down on benefit fraudsters.

Labour is promising new powers for police to quickly scrap noisy dirt and quad bikes causing havoc in neighbourhoods as part of a crackdown on antisocial behaviour.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party also wants to hike on-the-spot fines for using off-road bikes or ignoring officers’ instructions to stop, which are currently as low as £100.

Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said that if Labour wins the General Election, police will get the powers to take the bikes that are a “nightmare for communities” off the streets for good.

Under the plans, set out in the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Express, police will be able to dispose of off-road bikes being used antisocially within 48 hours.

Currently, bikes seized by officers have to be impounded for two weeks before disposal, with the steep costs incentivising forces to auction them off and risk handing them back to offenders.

Labour would also extend closure notices for drug dens from 48 hours to 72 hours, giving police more time to get them shut down at court.

Data-driven hotspot policing would target the most prolific antisocial offenders under the party’s proposals.