Way-too-early prediction for the 2024 12-team College Football Playoff

Tulane won 23 games over the last two seasons, but coach Willie Fritz is now at Houston. In comes former Green Waves assistant Jon Sumrall, who earned this gig after achieving Group of Five success at Troy. Now, Liberty could also slide into the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff slot, but Tulane should enter the season as the team to beat in the American Athletic Conference, especially with SMU no longer in the mix. The addition of former Oregon quarterback and touted recruit Ty Thompson, plus receiver transfers Mario Williams (USC) and Shazz Preston (Alabama), are more reasons to like Tulane’s chances in 2024.

A sixth conference champion has a shot at a CFP playoff spot. We like Boise State, the reigning Mountain West champions who made a big splash by gaining touted USC quarterback prospect Malachi Nelson out of the transfer portal. He joins nearly 20 starters back from a squad that struggled early in 2023, then found its form to win four in a row before falling to UCLA in the L.A. Bowl.

The reigning national champions certainly won’t look the same in the fall of 2024 as they did in the winter now that Jim Harbaugh has left for the NFL and quarterback J.J McCarthy has declared for the 2024 NFL Draft. That said, the versatile Donovan Edwards (1,662 career rushing yards, 68 receptions in 37 games) appears to be back and there is enough elite talent remaining on that vaunted defense for the Wolverines to be in the mix for a fourth straight Big Ten title, and a spot in the playoffs. Keep in mind, Michigan is also under investigation by the NCAA for its alleged sign-stealing instances under Harbaugh.

Dan Lanning has found a home coaching at Oregon, and that’s obviously great news for the program. Heisman Trophy finalist Bo Nix is gone, but fellow college football veteran Dillon Gabriel (14,860 career passing yards, 125 touchdowns, 26 interceptions; 26 rushing TDs) will play his sixth season for a third different school, and should keep Oregon’s offense humming. Meanwhile, safety Kobe Savage, a Kansas State transfer, is a solid addition with six interceptions in two seasons. Now playing in the Big Ten, the Ducks get Ohio State and former Pac-12 rival Washington at home, but must visit Michigan.

It’s a whole new era for Crimson Tide football in 2024. Nick Saban has retired as a college football coaching legend, and hot-shot replacement Kalen DeBoer is expected to carry on the greatness of Alabama football. While DeBoer’s hiring should keep the Crimson Tide among the country’s best, we’re not sure how good they’ll be — at least in 2024. Jalen Milroe (2,834 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, six interceptions; 12 rushing TDs) should be back under center and key defenders Caleb Downs and Deontae Lawson remain — for the time being. Now talent should not run dry at Alabama, and DeBoer will have the Tide ready for what’s ahead.

The expanded College Football Playoff is made for the likes of Ole Miss. All the Rebels need to do is get their way into the 12-team field, which seems like a good bet for 2024. The Rebels, actually, could end up being one of the top two teams in the SEC next season. Ole Miss returns a host of talent from 2023’s 11-2 group that lost to Alabama and Georgia and beat Penn State in the Peach Bowl. The return of quarterback Jaxson Dart (6,338 passing yards, 43 touchdowns, 16 interceptions in 2022 and ’23) is massive, and some high-level transfer help should aid a defense that allowed more than 25 points just three times last season. Even better, the Rebels don’t play Alabama, and host both Georgia and Oklahoma.

Notre Dame is 19-7 during Marcus Freeman’s two years as coach, and an inconsistent offense has been part of the story. However, Mike Denbrock is the new offensive coordinator after guiding LSU’s highly potent offense. Not to mention, Duke transfer Riley Leonard (4,450 passing yards in 26 games) and former FIU receiver Kris Mitchell (64 receptions, 1,118 yards) should help see more production from the unit. Meanwhile, the Irish defense could remain stout with the return of safety Xavier Watts (seven interceptions), tackle Howard Cross III and linebacker Jack Kiser. At the moment, Notre Dame’s two biggest tests appear to road games at Texas A&M and USC.

It’s quite possible the Longhorns get a better seed in the 12-team CFP. With a trip to the playoff to build on and quarterback Quinn Ewers (64.3 completion percentage, 5,656 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, 12 interceptions in 22 career games) back in the mix, the Longhorns again have lofty expectations for 2024. While there are holes to fill on the defensive line and among its pass-catchers, Texas should still be a force, even in the SEC. And once in the playoff, anything can happen with a larger field to play with.

Truth be told, Utah is another team with a serious shot at winning the Big 12, especially if quarterback Cam Rising is healthy. However, the Cowboys might have the most established talent of anybody else in the new-look league. It starts with an offense that’s loaded with talent and experience. Ageless quarterback Alan Bowman (3,460 passing yards, 15 touchdowns), running back Ollie Gordon II (1,732 rushing yards, 21 touchdowns) and receiver Brennan Presley (101 receptions, 991 yards, six touchdowns) all return as Oklahoma State looks to win at least 10 games for the third time in four years.

Clemson has lost at least three games in three consecutive seasons, and 2023’s 9-4 finish snapped a string of 12 consecutive years with at least 10 victories. The Tigers have not been part of the CFP since the 2019 campaign, but the ACC has no true favorite in 2024. So, why not the Tigers? They just might be the most title-ready member at the moment. Now, Clemson needs Cade Klubnik to blossom into one of the country’s top quarterbacks after he completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,844 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season. A dependable supporting cast at the skill positions would also help. That said, Clemson’s defense should remain among the best in the nation.

Let’s get past the Buckeyes’ dismal performance in that 14-3 loss to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl and look forward. Kansas State transfer Will Howard (2,643 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, nine rushing TDs) is a versatile veteran who can star in the Buckeyes’ offensive system. Plus, the return of stud running back TreVeyon Henderson (2,745 yards, 32 TDs in 31 games) and receiver Emeka Egbuka (124 receptions, 14 TDs in 31 games) is huge for the Buckeyes, who also have more than enough defensive talent (welcome back JT Tuimoloau) to not only win the new-look Big Ten, but challenge for a national title in 2024.

There’s certainly an argument to be made that Georgia should have been part of the College Football Playoff for 2023, considering the Bulldogs are 42-2 with two national titles over the past three seasons and dismantled a short-staffed Florida State squad in the Orange Bowl. So, with quarterback Carson Beck (3,941 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, eight interceptions) back, Florida transfer Trevor Etienne (1,472 yards, 14 TDs in two seasons) in the mix, a defense ready to reload and another elite recruiting class, the Bulldogs should enter the season as the team to beat. This remains so even as the college football landscape changes amid conference realignment and marquee coaching changes.

Let’s start by saying it’s always fun, but never easy, to offer predictions about how we think the first 12-team CFP playoff will play out. What we feel pretty confident suggesting is that if Texas stays healthy, it has a chance to make a serious run, even without winning the SEC. Quinn Ewers is likely to be a big reason for the Longhorns’ success in 2024, where it’s likely he’ll surpass the 9,000-passing yard mark for his career. Tulane last faced Texas in back-to-back seasons in 2002 and ’03, and lost both by a combined 112-18.Prediction: Texas 45, Tulane 16

Yes, we think Notre Dame has a good chance of making some serious CFP noise in 2024. Now, a rather favorable schedule should go a long way in getting the Fighting Irish to the playoff. Once there, it will all depend on seeding. In our model, Notre Dame earns a favorable seed and takes on Boise State, which has a stingy defense. However, the Irish’s run game, which is expected to be deep, might be too much for the Broncos, especially if Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price (657 combined rushing yards in 2023) are featured.Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Boise State 7

Maybe we’re hyping Ole Miss a little too much. However, when it comes to established talent, especially at the quarterback position, the Rebels might have what it takes to follow in the likes of Washington or TCU and crash the CFP party with a long postseason run. On the flipside, we’re not totally counting Michigan out, even with Harbaugh and McCarthy gone. Either way, we can see this particular matchup being the most entertaining of the of the playoff.Prediction: Ole Miss 26, Michigan 24

The more we hear Kalen DeBoer speak and carry himself in the days and weeks after taking the Alabama job, the more it seems the program is in pretty good hands. Does that mean the Crimson Tide is a a shoo-in for a CFP spot? Maybe not. We still don’t see them winning the SEC, but they’ll likely have too much overall talent — even with those 2024 defections into the transfer portal — to handle the Ducks. Dillon Gabriel has been around the NCAA block more than a few times, but handling another strong Alabama defense might be too much to ask.Prediction: Alabama 27, Oregon 21

So, we like Alabama to beat Oregon, which means it gets another date with rival Georgia. These teams will meet in Tuscaloosa on Sept. 28 — and, who knows, perhaps in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide have won eight of their last nine meetings with the Bulldogs. Of course, Georgia’s lone victory during that stretch produced a national title. We think Georgia will prevail again this time, and end Kalen DeBoer’s chance at a national championship in his first season running the Tide.Prediction: Georgia 35, Alabama 24

Cowboys fans won’t forget the 49-21 throttling their team received at the hands of Texas in last season’s Big 12 Championship Game. However, the Longhorns are out of that league, but that doesn’t mean these former conference rivals might not meet again with plenty on the line. Oklahoma State might have enough experienced talent to win the Big 12 in 2024, but Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns will be too much to handle once again if they tangle in the CFP.Prediction: Texas 45, Oklahoma State 20

Notre Dame has not had too much success against Clemson, going 2-4 in those matchups since 2015. Both Irish wins came at home, but the belief here is that they will be the stronger overall team in 2024, even if Clemson boasts the tougher schedule. There might not be many marquee names on the Notre Dame roster entering the season, but that could change come December, when Marcus Freeman’s squad’s success could end up being one of the bigger stories of the 2024 campaign.Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Clemson 20

As one can see by this list, we’re a little bullish on the Rebels’ chances for serious success in 2024. That said, the return of some key pieces to the Ohio State puzzle, and the fact that hated rival Michigan has overshadowed the Buckeyes in recent seasons, might be enough to motivate the program to return to national prominence on the CFP stage. In this particular matchup, the Ohio State defense, led by defensive ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, will help stymie the potent Ole Miss offense.Prediction: Ohio State 38, Ole Miss 17

Another rematch for the Bulldogs, who travel to Austin on Oct. 19. By this point, Georgia will have been well-tested (regular-season games at Alabama, Ole Miss, too) and ready for just about anything thrown its way. We would expect this one to be close, but in the end, the Bulldogs will find a way to frustrate Quinn Ewers and Co. There is certainly reason to like the Longhorns in 2024, but when it comes down to it, Georgia is on a true mission. And even though the road to the CFP will be difficult, Kirby Smart’s group will move one step closer to another national championship.Prediction: Georgia 29, Texas 14

Ohio State and Notre Dame played a couple of entertaining games each other in 2022 and ’23. However, the Buckeyes have dominated the all-time series, winning all six meetings. Should this be one of the semifinal matchups of the 2024 CFP event, then we would expect history to follow suit. Again, the Ohio State defense will flex its muscle, though its offense won’t have an easy time going against Notre Dame’s defenders. The game should be close most of the way until the Buckeyes pull away in the fourth quarter and set themselves with a national championship game date against Georgia.Prediction: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 10

Here we are. The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff comes to a conclusion with another postseason meeting between two perennial NCAA powers. Back on New Year’s Eve 2022, the Buckeyes and Bulldogs played an instant classic in the CFP semifinal. Georgia prevailed 42-41 in rather dramatic fashion on that night, and we believe it will do the same in this predicted matchup with even more on the line. The only difference, however, is that the Bulldogs will leave no doubt in this rematch, and regain their spot atop the college football world.Prediction: Georgia 30, Ohio State 20