2:00PM Water Cooler 3/8/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Clamorous Reed Warbler (Brown), Buak Khang paddies & scrublands, Chiang Mai, Thailand. Clamorous indeed!

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Some readers asked for something table of contents-like, so here are a few highlights amidst the density:

High- and Lowlights

(1) Lisa Page, like a bad penny.

(2) MTG meets Biden at the SOTU.

(3) RFK calls out DSAC, an ugly public-private partnership in the Censorship Industrial Complex

(4) The Full English..

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Spook Country

Slime pays:

Oh look Amazon hired Lisa Page. Yes, former FBI lawyer of Russiagate fame Lisa Page. To do their legal policy around satellite delivered broadband. https://t.co/UJTuOuHX8a pic.twitter.com/IgYnCWmkCo

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) March 7, 2024

Biden Administration

I will maintain the fiction that the SOTU was not a campaign speech. I will put on my yellow waders over the weekend, and although I prefer always to work from a transcript, this time I’ll actually have to watch it, the horror:

“State of the Union Shows There’s Life in the Old Boy Yet” [Peggy Noonan, Wall Street]. Sadly, I can only quote the deck: “Biden’s speech showed energy and focus, though he blurred some words and thoughts.”

“Biden’s State of the Union speech reinforced mental acuity and age concerns, Republicans say” [FOX]. But they would, wouldn’t they? “‘A lot of the time it was hard to understand what he was saying,’ said House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, R-Va. ‘He was kind of mumbling and slurring.’ ‘We couldn’t understand him. He was so mad,’ agreed Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan. ‘The volume was up and down.’ At several points, Biden did raise his voice to emphasize his points, particularly when referring to Trump. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, remarked the president’s annual address was ‘reminiscent of an old, angry man standing on his porch screaming ‘get off my front lawn.” While Republicans tended to regard Biden’s address as angry and evidence of his cognitive decline, congressional Democrats believed his speech showcased his energy.” But they would, wouldn’t they? More: ‘He was great. He was really fantastic,’ said Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, who also described Biden as ‘energetic’ and ‘clear.’ Even Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Neb., conceded: ‘I think in fairness, [Biden] had a good night.’” • The Juice, adrenaline, joy of battle, personal animus, partisan and ideological commitment… It’s a wonder Team Biden didn’t wind their guy up too tight!

“President Biden rails against ‘my predecessor’ in fiery State of the Union speech” [Semafor]. “The speech marked an unofficial kickoff of the president’s reelection push, laying out a message that he plans to take on the road to Michigan on Friday and Georgia on Saturday, where Trump is speaking the same day. The campaign and allied groups are also expected to ramp up advertising and build new volunteer and staff infrastructure in the coming weeks.” • We’ll have to see how the campaign trail treats Biden.

“5 memorable moments from Biden’s State of the Union” [The Hill]. One moment: “[Marjorie Taylor] Greene handed Biden a pin when he entered the chamber for his speech that read ‘say her name Laken Riley.’ Greene had distributed the pins to lawmakers ahead of Thursday night’s address. Then, while Biden was discussing the situation at the southern border during his speech, Greene yelled out, ‘It’s about Laken Riley,’ and other Republicans shouted, ‘Say her name.’ Biden held up the pin Greene gave him and responded to the congresswoman from the dais. ‘Laken Riley, an innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal,’ he said. ‘To her parents I say my heart goes out to you having lost children myself. I understand.’” • Showing that famous Biden empathy and stealing a Republican talking point (“an illegal”). Pretty good, even for a younger man. Meeting with MTG after the speech:

This amazing clip of Biden vs MTG proves to me he has all his marbles, all his mental faculties, all his sense of humor—and that he is going to win in November. pic.twitter.com/lP9I7tY2Kh

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) March 8, 2024

“Trump Offers Ranting SOTU Commentary: ‘EVERY LINE IS BEING SHOUTED’” [HuffPo]. “‘DON’T SHAKE PEOPLE’S HANDS GOING OUT – HE KEEPS COUGHING INTO HIS RIGHT HAND!’ he later wrote.” • Reinforcing fomite transmission (though indeed this is one potential case I’d avoid; yech!!). This is also an old Republican talking point — and a legitimate one!

2024

Less than a year to go!

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Trump (R): “Trump is ordered to pay legal fees after failed lawsuit over the Steele dossier” [Associated Press]. ” Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been ordered to pay a six-figure legal bill to a company founded by a former British spy that he unsuccessfully sued for making what his lawyer called ‘shocking and scandalous’ false claims that harmed his reputation. A London judge, who threw out the case against Orbis Business Intelligence last month saying it was ‘bound to fail,’ [why?] ordered Trump to pay legal fees of 300,000 pounds ($382,000), according to court documents released Thursday. Orbis was founded by Christopher Steele, who once ran the Russia desk for Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, also known as MI6.” • Six ways from Sunday, and across the Big Pond, too.

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Trump (R): “Intel agencies eye brief for Trump, amid fears he could spill secrets” [Politico]. • I don’t see what the worry is; they could always feed him chickenfeed. So they could pretend to brief him, and he could pretend to listen (or, more likely, try to reverse engineer what they were lying to him about).

Trump (R): “Dr. John Gartner: The world is watching ‘a fundamental breakdown in Trump’s ability to use language’” (interview) [Salon] Gartner: “And finally, there were more examples last week of a fundamental breakdown in Trump’s ability to use language, to think and to communicate. When Trump visited the border, he said: “Nobody [can] explain to me how allowing millions of people from places unknown, from countries unknown, who don’t speak languages — we have languages coming into our country, we have nobody that even speaks those languages. They are truly foreign languages. Nobody speaks them.” In my opinion, Donald Trump is getting worse as his cognitive state continues to degrade. If Trump were your relative, you’d be thinking about assisted care right now.” • On the Gartner quote: Not buying it; I can hear Trump saying those words, and Gartner’s giving an example of how Trump spirals around a topic. I think this is cope and tu quoque though I could be persauded otherwise. Readers?

Trump (R): “Who Really Stands With American Workers?” [Paul Krugman, New York Times]. “Overall, wage gains have more than kept up with inflation, and wage gains have been most rapid for lower-paid workers. As a result, most workers’ wages adjusted for inflation are higher than before the pandemic, and are actually above the prepandemic trend. In short, there’s a reason the United Automobile Workers endorsed Biden, although many of its members will vote for Trump anyway, imagining that he’s on their side. But Trump isn’t a populist, he’s a poseur. When making actual policy as opposed to speeches, he basically governed as Mitch McConnell with tariffs. Biden, on the other hand, really has pursued a pro-worker agenda — more so, arguably, than any president since Franklin D. Roosevelt — and has presided over a significant reduction in inequality.” • First, to “stand with” workers means to increase their class power; anything else devolves into giving with one hand and taking away with the other. Also, a careless reader would assume that the link for “a significant reduction in inequality” means a decrease in the Gini Coefficient, or some other metric for a diminution of the class power of our oligarchs. Not so. The link refers to “aggregate wage compression.” Obviously, capitalists aren’t wage-earners. Tsk!

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Kennedy (I): Good for him:

Ha.. My small business doesn’t qualify for membership. pic.twitter.com/E95ceX7BeM

— The Cooks (@fiveskillets) March 7, 2024

So (see the final tweet) DSAC is an especially rancid public-private partnership. And given the membership of the Executive Board, which includes executives from companies with over $1 billion in sales, you’ve got to ask yourself who’s in the driver’s seat (and not necessarily the Federal government, as Kennedy would have it).

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“Third-party group No Labels is expected to move forward with a 2024 campaign, AP sources say” [Associated Press]. “After months of leaving open whether the group would offer a ticket, No Labels delegates are expected to vote Friday in favor of launching a presidential campaign for this fall’s election, according to the people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the group’s internal deliberations. No Labels will not name its presidential and vice presidential picks on Friday, when roughly 800 delegates meet virtually in a private meeting. The group is instead expected to debut a formal selection process late next week for potential candidates who would be selected in the coming weeks, the people said.” • Drawing out the suspense!

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“New Report Mapping Christian Nationalism by State Suggests Election Need Not Be Played Out on Christian Nationalist Terms” [Religion Dispatches]. “Christian nationalism should not be ignored or downplayed, but at the same time the segment of the population that embraces it is punching above its weight. Two states—Mississippi and North Dakota—reach 50% support, and only a handful land in the 40s. The rest of the nation ranges from the teens to the mid-30s. That’s a significant minority, to be sure, but a minority all the same. That means the election need not be played out on Christian nationalist terms. Voters may be less supportive of immigration than they’ve been before, but Democrats are otherwise solidly aligned with the values of the majority of Americans. That Christian nationalists are in a solid minority in places like Ohio, Texas, or Florida also demonstrates the perilous position of hard-right regimes in such states. Were it not for gerrymandering and other anti-democratic tactics, their agenda would be firmly rejected. To put things another way: there are a lot more places that could be opened up as swing states on the basis of rejecting Christian nationalism than the other way around.” • Handy map:

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“Nothing New Under the Sun? Campaign Departures and Parallels” [RealClearPolitics]. “Donald Trump’s presumptive candidacy has clear precedents. He will be the fifth former president to run for reelection … and, almost implausibly, all in that exclusive club were New Yorkers. Martin Van Buren, Millard Fillmore, Grover Cleveland, and Theodore Roosevelt were former presidents who sought another term in the Executive Mansion – that is, not immediately succeeding themselves. In many ways the contemporary Republican Party could be called the Trumpublican Party, so much has it been transformed. History will sort out how much Donald Trump has been the architect or the legatee. Van Buren had to join the new anti-slavery Free Soil Party; Millard Fillmore was the nominee of the Know-Nothing Party; and Theodore Roosevelt placed second, beating the Republican incumbent, on the Progressive (‘Bull Moose’) ticket. These men ran under new designations because they were unable to transform the party establishments of their former parties. To the extent that Trump has wrought change in his party and across the political landscape, enabling his renomination, there are parallels – if not coincidences – found in the person of Democrat Grover Cleveland and the election of 1888. Cleveland is the only president, thus far, who managed to serve two non-consecutive terms. He was the 22nd and the 24th president – a historical contortion due to the single term of Republican Benjamin Harrison in between. Contested results, corrupt vote counts, and unresolved accusations surrounded the 1888 campaign. Among the coincidences and parallels we observe today, Grover Cleveland (1837-1908) in several ways foreshadowed Donald Trump. An instrument of reform, Cleveland attempted to ‘drain the swamp’ of his time, championing Civil Service reform.”

Republican Funhouse

“Oklahoma said to have the highest rate of ‘long COVID’ symptoms according to recent analysis” [FOX]. “Oklahoma is said to have the highest rate of residents who have been reporting the experience of ‘long COVID’ according to an analysis from helpadvisor.com, with the highest rate of any other state at 34.1%. Half a million Oklahomans are experiencing symptoms after the virus has passed through, leaving them with a cough, fatigue or even long term diagnosis that affects the brain, heart and lungs. ‘The most common symptoms that we see initially with the infection is going to be that cough, that shortness of breath, and what people don’t realize is that a lot of those can linger and some of the most common ones is fatigue,’ said [Utica Park Clinic Family Physician Dr. Matthew Else]. ‘And then we have this extreme other end of things and we don’t understand it quite yet, but as we heard there can be some pretty odd lingering symptoms and some long lasting new diagnosis such as diabetes or cognitive defects.’” • Maybe Republicans will get to Long Covid first, who knows (that Sanders hearing sure went nowhere). The quotes from Else aren’t very good, but at least they understand they’ve got a problem, out there in flyover.

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Reminder: Trump’s Last Year in Office Was a National Nightmare” [Paul Krugman, New York Times]. “There’s no real question that thousands of Americans died unnecessarily because of Trump’s dereliction of duty in the face of Covid-19.” • We can compare Trump’s records to Biden’s later; suffice for now to say that there are a lot more deaths “under the curve” for Biden, not Trump. But this perspective is interesting:

100% this.

I know this wasn’t the same everywhere, but in my very blue county and state we handled the pandemic well under Trump because no one trusted him.

It is so much worse now. https://t.co/kLMCIZy7Qk

— Becca Peter (@DefectiveBecca) March 7, 2024

Yes, the PMC behaved much better under Trump. Remember “flattening the curve”? “Essential workers”? Good times. At least they showed some consciousness greater than whinging about missing brunch.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Why wear a mask to a protest?” [The Gauntlet]. The deck: “Or: why spread illness when you could not do that?” And: “People who typically mock the propagandist claims of the state’s talking heads in this case repeat them verbatim. The willingness of much of the organized left to fall in line with Biden’s pandemic denial and minimization has resulted in much greater social isolation of disabled and immunocompromised people than during the Trump era…. Search twitter for any masked selfie and read the comments. You will see- mostly MAGA trolls- openly calling for masked people to be killed. You will generally not see prominent leftists with large platforms pushing back by encouraging masking and practicing it themselves…. [C]ops and the state are hellbent on peeling masks off of faces due to their illegal and unconstitutional targeting of peaceful protestors and leftist organizers.” And: “Personally, I am now involved in the DC-area Mask Bloc; this group has been attending protests and distributing thousands of free masks. Such groups have popped up all over the world and are doing the difficult and often thankless work of distributing free, high-quality masks, tests, and information. To me, they are the exciting new frontier of the left. More exciting would be the inclusion of this work in more established spaces, by more powerful groups and individuals.” • Excellent post and worth reading in full. Don’t be like Bernie:

…and the speech ends by Bernie ripping off his medical mask to join his posse.

Damn.

— Lady Chuan (@LadyChuan) March 8, 2024

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“Conflict in the Age of Fractured Publics” [The National Interest]. Divide and conquer has been an overclass tactic since forever; but perhaps they’ve gone too far? “The fragile level of public support renders mass mobilization strategies, which leaders at the height of the industrial age practiced, nearly impossible…. Aware of the fragility of public support, contemporary countries at war have generally kept taxes low, ensured a steady flow of consumer goods, and placed the burden of warfighting on a tiny minority. Escalation to major war accordingly looks less and less likely. Geopolitical struggle will likely take a form different from recent world wars. Key differences could include the following: First, only a small minority of the population may be involved in the contests…. Second, weak and divided public support could become a persistent feature of the contest…. Third, governments will face a strong incentive to fight wars on the cheap…. Instead of high-intensity wars, countries may find proxy, information, cyber, and economic warfare more attractive ways to sustain pressure on their adversaries.” • Sounds like what we’re already doing. How about Civil wars?

#COVID19

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Censorship and Propaganda

“America’s split on whether the pandemic is over” [Axios]. One data point: “A February Axios-Ipsos survey found 17% of adults reported wearing a mask in public, down from 30% a year earlier.” • This in the face of the worst wave of propaganda, and the greatest governing class unity that I’ve ever seen. (And there’s a lot of selection bias against when they’re seen, too; maskers tend to avoid crowds, go when stores are empty, etc., so they do not loom large in the public mind.) If the rule of thumb — and I’m just picking this number at random — is that 10% of the population is resistant to peer pressure (here, we might say “are critical thinkers”) then 17% is impressively above that baseline. To deploy the Margaret Mead quote everybody probably already knows: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful committed individuals can change the world. In fact, it’s the only thing that ever has.”

Celebrity Watch

“Pope appears unable to climb a few steps as respiratory and mobility problems take their toll” [Associated Press]. “Pope Francis again asked an aide to read his remarks and was unable to get back onto his popemobile Wednesday, as lingering respiratory and mobility problems continued to take their toll on the 87-year-old pontiff…. Last Wednesday, Francis went to the hospital for unspecified diagnostic tests, the results of which have not been released. He has been suffering on and off this winter from what he and the Vatican have said was a cold, bouts of bronchitis and the flu.” • Huh. I wonder what it could be?

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Biobot drops, conformant to Walgreen positivity data (if that is indeed not a data artifact). Note, however, the area “under the curve,” besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.

[2] (Biobot) Regional separation re-emerges.

[3] (CDC Variants) As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

[4] (ER) Does not support Biobot data. “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening. (Date for data corrected; it was a glitch.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) That’s a big drop! It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow. UPDATE Given the extraordinary and sudden drop-off, I thought I’d check to see if the population being tested changed in some way. Here are the absolute numbers on February 14, at the edge of the cliff:

And here are the absolute numbers on March 3:

As you can see, there’s an order of magnitude decrease in those testing between those two dates. Was there an event on or about February 14 that is a candidate suggesting an account of this massive shift in behavior? Why yes, yes there is:

“CDC plans to drop five-day covid isolation guidelines” [WaPo] (February 13, 2024).

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, consistent with Biobot data.

[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit in the rear view mirror.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) Backward revisions remove NV.1 data. JN.1 dominates utterly.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9% in February 2024, touching the highest level since January 2022 and surpassing market expectations of 3.7%.”

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Tech: “Why Citi is rolling out generative AI to all its developers” [American Banker]. “Citi is evaluating hundreds of other generative AI use cases in areas like operations automation, customer service, fraud detection and office productivity.” • How about accounting control fraud?

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 74 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 78 (Extreme Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Mar 8 at 1:28:39 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

“The foods that make you more (and less) attractive, according to science” [Metro UK]. “If you’re a sucker for a Full English then it’s good news for you. The hangover cure and breakfast of kings makes men more attractive to the opposite sex. Think sausages, bacon, toast, beans, eggs, hash browns, tomatoes – the full works. The combination of fats and proteins, such as dairy and meats, with fewer refined carbs, is a real hit for men with the ladies. On the other hand, chaps who opt for a more continental breakfast of refined-carbohydrate foods – croissants, waffles, pancakes, pastries muffins and cereals – are apparently less attractive, with scientists branding them a real turn-off.” • The Full English, much beloved by Hubertus Bigend….

News of the Wired

“Having Self-Control Leads to Power” (press release) [UC San Diego]. “In a paper published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, researchers find that showing self-control influences how powerful an individual is perceived to be by their peers, as well as how much power they are granted by those peers. … The researchers also found that people are perceived as less powerful and less suited for powerful roles when they fail to meet ambitious goals, even if their performance is the same as their peers. In an experiment investigating how self-control often leads to power, a group of undergraduate students interacted with individuals who set various reading goals. Some set an ambitious goal of reading 200 pages each week, while others set a more moderate goal of reading 50 pages per week. All of these individuals read the same amount – 100 pages – but those who didn’t meet their goal were seen as less powerful by study participants. Furthermore, study participants were less interested in having those who didn’t meet their goal as the group leader in later tasks. ‘To motivate their employees, organizations often want employees to set stretch goals – goals that are challenging and hard-to-reach. However, we found that setting a stretch goal and not meeting it makes someone look less powerful than setting an easy goal and surpassing it,’ said Rady School PhD student Shuang Wu, the first author of the paper.” • You say “disempower employees” like that’s a bad thing (and do try to maintain an above-average level of executive function, since that helps one maintain self-control).

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From M:

M writes: “These are alpine flowers from southwest Montana, taken in early July at approximately 8,400 ft elevation. Photos were taken with a Nikon SLR on a tripod with timer. This is an east-facing hillside cover with Larkspur (purple) and limited Cinquefoil (yellow).”

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